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The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 
Economic activity nowcasting (i.e. making current-period estimates) is convenient because most traditional measures of economic activity come with substantial lags. We aim at nowcasting ISE, a short-term economic activity indicator in Colombia. Inputs are ISE’s lags and a dataset of payments made…
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 
The recent drop in the country’s terms of trade had a significant impact on economic growth. This section looks at what would happen to long-term sustainable growth if that decline were to be permanent. This is particularly important when considering the Board of Directors…
Armenia Barranquilla
Evidence of the causal long-term relationship between budget deficit, money growth and inflation in Colombia is analyzed in this paper, considering the standard (M1), the narrowest (M0-Base) and the broadest (M3) definitions of money supply. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model with…
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 At a request from the Ministry of Finance, Banco de la República last year carried out an investigation into the feasibility to use parts of the foreign reserves to buy back some of Colombia’s outstanding sovereign U.S.-dollar debt.  This project resulted in two thorough technical…
The Banco de la República (Central Bank of Colombia) invites the academic community to submit papers for possible publication in the book titled “Equitable, Competitive and Sustainable Development of Agriculture in Colombia”. This publication aims to publish a set of articles that contribute to our…
     
Abstract We bring together the largest meta-analysis ever conducted in the macroeconomic literature to investigate the effects of central bank credibility on monetary policy. With nearly 1,200 surveyed effects, we first confirm that: (i) conventional policy significantly affects inflation and…
This paper evaluates the effects of capital account controls adopted in the past years by the FLAR’s member countries (Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Perú and Venezuela) on the efficiency of the banking sector, the economic growth and the volatility of output, consumption, and investment.…
Abstract We show that capital controls (CC), by slowing-down firm debt-growth in the boom, improve firm performance during crises. Exploiting a tax on foreign-currency (FX) debt inflows in  Colombia before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and multiple firm-level and loan-level…
Abstract We study how capital controls and domestic macroprudential policy tame credit supply booms, respectively targeting foreign and domestic bank debt. For identification, we exploit the simultaneous introduction of capital controls on foreign exchange (FX) debt inflows and an increase of…
The effects of capital destruction are endogenized in a neoclassical growth model where the economy can optimally allocate part of its labor force to defend capital from being destroyed. The purpose is to explain the optimal allocation of the labor force between productive and deterrence activities…
This paper analyzes the evolution and impact of capital flows in Colombia over the past five years. An examination of the nature and composition of the capital flows indicates that to large extent they have originated in foreign direct investment, especially in the oil and mining sectors. The…
Published in "Critical Issues in International Financial Reform", Albert Berry & Gustavo Indart (editors) Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, NJ & London, UK 2003.
Capital inflows and outflows often remind policymakers of the monetary policy “trilemma” and the several associated dilemmas. To tackle these dilemmas, an equilibrium model of capital flows is proposed. The model captures bouts of capital inflows and outflows with shocks to the emerging-market…
SEACEN – CEMLA Conference “The Implementation of Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges for Coming Years”Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia
Place of Birth: Ibagué, Tolima Date of Birth: Septiembre 5 de 1946 Profession: Economist
Article published on BIS Review, Bankers’ Speeches Section.