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Complete tittle: The Banco de la Republica Leaves the Benchmark Interest Rate Unaltered and Continues he International Reserve Purchase ProgramIn their meeting today, the Board of Directors of the Banco de la Republica decided to leave the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%. In making this decision,…

Annual inflation increased marginally to 5.3% in February, following a three-month period of stability at 5.2%. The most significant increases were observed in the prices of processed foods and certain regulated items, including gas and transportation. Core inflation (excluding food and regulated…

Annual inflation dropped from 6.1% to 5.8% between August and September. Leading this decline was the regulated items group, whose annual inflation decreased by one percentage point from 11.1% to 10.1%, mainly driven by the fuels component. Food inflation also registered a significant drop (from 3.…

Annual inflation fell in August to 6.1%, below forecasts by the Bank’s technical staff and the market. This easing was partly driven by lower-than-expected prices in the food basket, with food inflation falling from 5.3% to 3.4% between July and August, primarily resulting from an ample supply of…

Headline inflation rose again in September for the third consecutive month, reaching 5.2%, a level last seen at yearend 2024. Core inflation, excluding food and regulated items, remained at 4.8%.Inflation expectations, as measured by surveys and the public debt market, increased in October. Median…

Annual inflation in June fell to 4.8% from 5.1% in May, chiefly as a result of waning inflation in the food and regulated baskets. Food inflation fell from 4.7% to 4.3%, mainly due to a reduction in perishables inflation. Regulated products inflation fell from 6.3% to 5.5%, driven by lower…

Between April and May, annual inflation edged down slightly—from 5.2% to 5.1%—while core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) fell mildly from 4.9% to 4.8%. This modest deceleration reflects rigidity in key baskets such as food and services, offset by a small rebound in goods inflation.…

Annual inflation resumed its downward trend between February and March, declining from 5.3% to 5.1%. By components, results were mixed: inflation for goods and food increased, while that for regulated items and services decreased. Core inflation—excluding food and regulated items—continued to…

Headline inflation stood at 5.1% in August, while core inflation excluding food and regulated items ended the month at 4.8%, exceeding the technical staff’s forecasts. The largest deviation was seen in food, primarily in perishable items and in the international prices of certain foods and…

In December, annual inflation remained at 5.2%, unchanged from the levels seen in November. Monthly inflation (0.46%) driven by food price inflation, which climbed from 2.3% to 3.3%, exceeded the expectations of both the market (0.40%) and the technical staff (0.34%). Core inflation, excluding food…

In November, annual inflation fell to 5.2%, below the 5.4% seen in October. Core inflation, excluding food and regulated items, remained close to 5.4%, as a result of persistent inflationary pressures in the services sub-basket (7.3%). The latter is due to upward pressures from the food away from…

Annual inflation remained unchanged in May at 7.2%, while core inflation (excluding food or regulated items) fell from 6.4% to 6.1%. Annual food inflation was slightly higher than expected, increasing from 3% to 4.4%, owing to a rebound in the prices of some perishable foods whose impact from the…

Annual inflation rose slightly from 7.16% to 7.18% between May and June. Core inflation excluding food and regulated items decreased from 6.1% to 6.0%, aligning with the technical staff's forecasts. Annual food inflation continued to increase, from 4.4% to 5.3%, driven by climatic factors affecting…

In March, annual headline inflation reached 7.4%, completing 12 months of consecutive declines from its March 2023 peak of 13.3%. Likewise, inflation excluding food and regulated items significantly decreased and stood at 6.8% in March. The reduction in annual inflation was largely driven by…

Annual headline inflation continued its downward trend during February, standing at 7.7% and exhibiting a cumulative drop of 1.5 percentage points (pp) during the first two months of the year. Likewise, annual inflation, excluding food and regulated items, had a 1.2 pp drop which, coupled with a…

Annual consumer price inflation decreased in May for the second consecutive month to 12.4%, fronted by a reduction in the annual food price inflation rate from 27.8% in December 2022 to 15.7% in May 2023. In contrast, increases were observed in the inflation of regulated items resulting from…

In its policy discussion, the Board considered the following elements:

By December, annual inflation had dropped for the ninth consecutive month and closed the year at 9.28%, in line with the technical staff’s December projection. Food and goods (excluding food and regulated items) fronted the inflationary decline, standing at 5% and 7.1% by yearend, respectively.…

Banco de la República’s policy interest rate is currently 9.25%. The policy interest rate serves as the benchmark that the Bank uses to lend to or borrow from commercial banks over very short terms. As with other central banks worldwide, it is the main policy instrument used to achieve the annual…

Recent months have seen a much larger influx of funds into the Colombian stock market. For example, pension fund mangers (PFM) added Col$5.84 trillion (t) to their stock market investments between 2002 and 2006 (Financial Market Superintendent, 2007), and foreign portfolio investments (short and…

Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions. In…

Typically, when forecasting inflation rates, there are a variety of individual models and a combination of several of these models. We implement a Bayesian shrinkage combination methodology to include information that is not captured by the individual models using expert forecasts as prior…

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as…

Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Colombian Exchange Rate Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Colombian Exchange Rate Norberto Rodríguez Niño  */

The main purposes of the first Report that the de Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) submits to Congress at the beginning of its regular meetings each year are: to examine the performance of the country's economy during the immediately preceding year; to explain the actions for…