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Interest rates on public debt tend to respond to different determinants, depending on maturity. Since 2024, short-term interest rates on Colombian peso-denominated public debt (TES) have declined in line with the cuts in Banco de la República’s monetary policy rate (MPR). On the contrary, long-term…
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Inflation increased more than the Bank anticipated during the second quarter of the year. However, with a cautious monetary policy and no significant increases in labor costs, prices are projected to rise at a slower pace, closer to the 3% target, in 2026 and 2027.
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Macroeconomic EnvironmentIn 2025, the international economic environment has been significantly affected by the announcements from the US government to increase tariffs on its imports, including those from Colombia. This has generated economic uncertainty, trade disruptions, and has affected…
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Macroeconomic imbalances are understood as the deviations of key variables from their long-term equilibrium values. These imbalances can accumulate over time, often during economic boom periods, increasing an economy’s vulnerability to adverse shocks and preface economic contractions and financial…
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Prices increased more than expected during the third quarter of the year. However, inflation is still expected to decrease in 2026 and fall within the range of 2 % to 4 %, continuing to approach the 3 % target, but at a somewhat slower pace. It is estimated that inflation will be at 5.1 % by the…
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Between March and September 2025, global financial markets showed signs of recovery. However, uncertainty persists due to high global debt, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts.
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This Special Financial Stability Report updates and expands the analysis of the performance of the loan portfolio and credit risk of credit institutions presented in the Financial Stability Report for the second half of 2025 and in its
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Global inflation and interest rates remained elevated amid a more cautious stance by central banks.Inflation rebounded in major developed economies and remained above their central banks’ targets.Markets revised their interest rate expectations upward.Capital flows to emerging economies weakened…
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The dynamics of the primary markets in which the financial system participates (e.g., credit, deposits, and fund management, among others) are intricately connected to the performance of the household sector, given its significant role in each of these areas. This report is created considering the…
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According to the Colombian Household Survey (GEIH), as of November 20251 national employment continued to increase at an annual rate of 3.9%.
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According to the Colombian Household Survey (GEIH), as of February 2026, employment continues to increase in annual terms, mainly driven by rural areas, which exhibited a 2.5% growth rate, while the twenty-three main cities showed an annual growth rate of 2.0%.
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The Colombian real estate market is experiencing a recovery in demand that contrasts with lagging supply, amid tighter financial conditions and localized risks to the sector's stability. In 2025, the Colombian economy grew by 2.6%, while the construction sector’s GDP contracted by 2.8% year-on-year…
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According to the Regional Economic Pulse (PER, by its Spanish acronym) indicator, the national economy would have slowed its growth rate during the first quarter of 2026 (Graph 1). Most regional economies continued expanding, supported by positive trade performance. However, this increase may have…
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During January and March 2026, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) increased the monetary policy interest rate from 9.25% to 11.25% (Graph B1.1). The pace of this increase was faster than that of typical benchmark-rate adjustments. It was adopted in a context where many…
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In recent decades, Earth’s average temperature has steadily increased, with the average over the past three years surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold set by the 2016 Paris Agreement1 (Graph B2.1). The Agreement states that higher levels of global warming would substantially raise the risks of droughts…
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In 2025, the Colombian economy continued on its path of recovery, with economic activity registering an annual growth of 2.6%, surpassing the 1.5% observed in 2024. In turn, annual headline inflation converged more slowly toward the target, ending 2025 at 5.1%, close to the 5.2% recorded at the end…
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Financial conditions reflect the state of financial factors that, through various channels (e.g., leverage), influence the current and future evolution of key economic variables (Hatzius et al., 2010). Accordingly, the Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Colombia is constructed to synthesize…
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In recent discussions of Colombia’s macroeconomic environment, relatively little attention has been paid to the changing relationship between Banco de la República’s (Banrep) monetary policy rate and market interest rates. Such discussions often assume that Banrep’s policy rate is the sole or at…
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Inflation continued to rise in the first months of the year and moved further away from its target, driven by higher labor costs, strong domestic demand, and disruptions in the production of some goods. Additional increases in inflation are expected throughout the year; however, monetary policy…
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Exposure of financial intermediaries to an environment of tighter local financial conditions:
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This Box quantifies the potential effects of a real increase in the minimum wage on a set of macroeconomic variables when the increment exceeds the sum of inflation and labor productivity growth by 17.2 percentage points (pp), as the one established for 2026. The analysis is conducted by updating…
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Banco de la República, the Central Bank of Colombia, continuously reviews and updates the tools used for macroeconomic forecasting and monetary policy analysis. These tools include macroeconomic models, which enable the collective analysis of inflation and economic growth dynamics in the medium…
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In 2025, inflation stopped declining and remained above the 3% target. It is expected to rise to 6.3% in 2026 and then fall to 3.7% by December 2027, within a context of excess demand, solid economic growth, high employment levels, and increased labor costs in 2026.
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Este recuadro analiza cómo un aumento importante del salario mínimo puede afectar la inflación. El ejercicio considera un escenario en el cual dicho incremento se ubica por encima de la inflación pasada y del crecimiento de la productividad laboral en 17,2 puntos porcentuales (pp), magnitud…
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Macroeconomic EnvironmentGlobal economy in 2025 was marked by an environment of high political and trade uncertainty, driven by the imposition of new tariffs by the United States.However, partial trade agreements between the US and other major economies were reached over the course of the year,…
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