Servicios
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Spending inflexibility is a structural feature of Colombia’s Government Budget (PGN). This condition reflects the existence of earmarked revenues, the establishment of spending commitments through the Constitution and the law, and the state’s permanent obligations related to pensions and debt…
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Interest rates on public debt tend to respond to different determinants, depending on maturity. Since 2024, short-term interest rates on Colombian peso-denominated public debt (TES) have declined in line with the cuts in Banco de la República’s monetary policy rate (MPR). On the contrary, long-term…
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Inflation increased more than the Bank anticipated during the second quarter of the year. However, with a cautious monetary policy and no significant increases in labor costs, prices are projected to rise at a slower pace, closer to the 3% target, in 2026 and 2027.
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Macroeconomic EnvironmentIn 2025, the international economic environment has been significantly affected by the announcements from the US government to increase tariffs on its imports, including those from Colombia. This has generated economic uncertainty, trade disruptions, and has affected…
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Macroeconomic imbalances are understood as the deviations of key variables from their long-term equilibrium values. These imbalances can accumulate over time, often during economic boom periods, increasing an economy’s vulnerability to adverse shocks and preface economic contractions and financial…
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Prices increased more than expected during the third quarter of the year. However, inflation is still expected to decrease in 2026 and fall within the range of 2 % to 4 %, continuing to approach the 3 % target, but at a somewhat slower pace. It is estimated that inflation will be at 5.1 % by the…
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Carry trade is an investment strategy whose returns depend on the interest rate differential between two jurisdictions and on the evolution of their exchange rates. It consists of borrowing in a currency with low interest rates (funding currency) to invest in assets denominated in another currency…
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For monetary and financial authorities, the timely identification of potential signs of stress or financial pressures is a key input for the supervision and preservation of financial and economic stability. In this regard, financial stress and pressure indices play an important role among the tools…
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This Special Financial Stability Report updates and expands the analysis of the performance of the loan portfolio and credit risk of credit institutions presented in the Financial Stability Report for the second half of 2025 and in its
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Global inflation and interest rates remained elevated amid a more cautious stance by central banks.Inflation rebounded in major developed economies and remained above their central banks’ targets.Markets revised their interest rate expectations upward.Capital flows to emerging economies weakened…
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Global inflation and interest rates remained high amidst a highly cautious stance by central banksInflation resumed its upward trend in major developed economies and remained above the central banks' targets.Markets revised their interest rate expectations upward.During the quarter, capital flows…
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The escalation of geopolitical conflicts has heightened global uncertainty and adversely affected markets, economic growth, and inflation.
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The dynamics of the primary markets in which the financial system participates (e.g., credit, deposits, and fund management, among others) are intricately connected to the performance of the household sector, given its significant role in each of these areas. This report is created considering the…
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According to the Colombian Household Survey (GEIH), as of November 20251 national employment continued to increase at an annual rate of 3.9%.
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According to the Colombian Household Survey (GEIH), as of May 2026, employment in the national aggregate continues to increase in annual terms by 3.2%, mainly explained by the performance of rural areas, which recorded a 5.0% annual growth rate, while employment in the twenty-three main cities…
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According to the Colombian Household Survey (GEIH), as of February 2026, employment continues to increase in annual terms, mainly driven by rural areas, which exhibited a 2.5% growth rate, while the twenty-three main cities showed an annual growth rate of 2.0%.
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The Colombian real estate market is experiencing a recovery in demand that contrasts with lagging supply, amid tighter financial conditions and localized risks to the sector's stability. In 2025, the Colombian economy grew by 2.6%, while the construction sector’s GDP contracted by 2.8% year-on-year…
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Exposure of financial intermediaries to an environment of tighter local financial conditions:
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Exposure of the economy and the financial system to natural phenomenaThe El Niño phenomenon and the August earthquake could affect economic activity and place additional pressures on prices and public spending.Most credit institutions have limited exposure to the areas affected by the earthquake.
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According to the Regional Economic Pulse (PER, by its Spanish acronym) indicator, the national economy would have slowed its growth rate during the first quarter of 2026 (Graph 1). Most regional economies continued expanding, supported by positive trade performance. However, this increase may have…
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According to the Regional Economic Pulse (PER, by its Spanish acronym) indicator, the national economy would have grown in the second quarter of 2026 at a pace similar to that observed in previous periods (Graph 1). The positive performance of all regional economies would continue to be driven by…
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Financial Market Infrastructures in ColombiaPayment Infrastructure in Financial MarketsIn 2025, Banrep’s large-value payment system, the Deposit Accounts System (CUD, for its acronym in Spanish), exhibited greater activity. The average daily value of settled transactions increased by 19.5% compared…
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During January and March 2026, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) increased the monetary policy interest rate from 9.25% to 11.25% (Graph B1.1). The pace of this increase was faster than that of typical benchmark-rate adjustments. It was adopted in a context where many…
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In recent decades, Earth’s average temperature has steadily increased, with the average over the past three years surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold set by the 2016 Paris Agreement1 (Graph B2.1). The Agreement states that higher levels of global warming would substantially raise the risks of droughts,…
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In 2025, the Colombian economy continued on its path of recovery, with economic activity registering an annual growth of 2.6%, surpassing the 1.5% observed in 2024. In turn, annual headline inflation converged more slowly toward the target, ending 2025 at 5.1%, close to the 5.2% recorded at the end…
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