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In recent discussions of Colombia’s macroeconomic environment, relatively little attention has been paid to the changing relationship between Banco de la República’s (Banrep) monetary policy rate and market interest rates. Such discussions often assume that Banrep’s policy rate is the sole or at…

Inflation continued to rise in the first months of the year and moved further away from its target, driven by higher labor costs, strong domestic demand, and disruptions in the production of some goods. Additional increases in inflation are expected throughout the year; however, monetary policy…

This Box quantifies the potential effects of a real increase in the minimum wage on a set of macroeconomic variables when the increment exceeds the sum of inflation and labor productivity growth by 17.2 percentage points (pp), as the one established for 2026. The analysis is conducted by updating…

Banco de la República, the Central Bank of Colombia, continuously reviews and updates the tools used for macroeconomic forecasting and monetary policy analysis. These tools include macroeconomic models, which enable the collective analysis of inflation and economic growth dynamics in the medium…

In 2025, inflation stopped declining and remained above the 3% target. It is expected to rise to 6.3% in 2026 and then fall to 3.7% by December 2027, within a context of excess demand, solid economic growth, high employment levels, and increased labor costs in 2026.

El fenómeno de El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENSO, por su sigla en inglés) es una alteración natural de origen oceánico y atmosférico que se manifiesta en el océano Pacífico tropical central y oriental. Su fase cálida (conocida como El Niño) corresponde a un calentamiento persistente y anómalo de las…

From a theoretical perspective, tradable-goods inflation can be described by a New Keynesian Phillips curve for an open economy, in which current inflation depends on inflation expectations and real marginal costs. Since the latter variable is not observable, the literature generally approximates…

En Colombia las tasas de interés desempeñan un papel fundamental en la economía, el acceso al crédito y la solidez fiscal del Gobierno Central. La Junta Directiva del Banco de la República es la encargada de determinar la tasa de interés de política monetaria (TPM), que corresponde a la tasa de…

International uncertainty remains extremely high and continues to affect global economyConflict in the Middle East raised international prices for oil, natural gas, and fertilizers. This increased production and transportation costs, put upward pressure on prices in several countries, and led some…

This box analyzes how a significant increase in the minimum wage may affect inflation. The exercise considers a scenario in which such an increase exceeds past inflation and labor productivity growth by 17.2 percentage points (pp), a magnitude consistent with the adjustment considered for 2026. The…

Inflation expectations refer to the level of inflation that economic agents anticipate in the future. In other words, they are the estimates made by individuals or groups regarding expected increases in the prices of goods and services most frequently consumed by households.

The 1991 Political Constitution assigned Banco de la República the mandate of maintaining low and stable inflation, in coordination with the general economic policy. To fulfill this mandate, since 1999, Colombia has adopted an inflation targeting scheme under a flexible exchange rate system, in…

External income is fundamental to the economic development of countries, particularly for developing economies such as Colombia. These flows constitute an important component of national income and support economic growth by enabling the expansion of production, investment, the adoption of…

Macroeconomic EnvironmentGlobal economy in 2025 was marked by an environment of high political and trade uncertainty, driven by the imposition of new tariffs by the United States.However, partial trade agreements between the US and other major economies were reached over the course of the year,…

Artículo publicado en: Revista Colombiana de Estadística, vol. 35, núm. 3, pp. 477-506, diciembre, 2012.  

Artículo publicado en: Ensayos sobre Política Económica, vol. 30, núm. 68, pp. 274-295, junio, 2012  

The United States Federal Reserve has guaranteed Banco de la República access to repos through FIMA. This facility has been open since 6 April 2020. Eligible institutions are central banks with custody accounts for US Treasury securities at the Federal Reserve. Banco de la República would make use…

In its virtual meeting today, the Committee for the Coordination and Surveillance of the Financial System, whose members are the Minister of Finance, the Governor of the Central Bank, the Financial Superintendent, and the Director of FOGAFIN (National Deposit Insurance Fund), analyzed aspects that,…

The Covid-19 pandemic brought about an unprecedented deterioration of the Colombian labor market, both in terms of its pace and magnitude. About a quarter of pre-crisis employment was destroyed in March and April, and while a slight upturn in occupation occurred in May, its annual falls continue to…

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met on April 9 to conclude the Article IV consultation with Colombia. In its report, the IMF highlights the country's macroeconomic policy framework and the short-term response to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The flexible…

The Economic Education Section hereby informs that the deadlines and conditions of the essay contest “De la banca escolar a la banca central” have been modified to ensure the participation of every school in the country. Please read the following information carefully: New Deadlines

The files (folders) of those interested in participating in the calls for studies abroad for Colombian citizens 2020 (PhD in Economics, graduate studies in Economic Law, and young musical talents) will be received digitally by email at: DDHB-Estudios-Exterior@banrep.gov.co