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Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions. In…

Typically, when forecasting inflation rates, there are a variety of individual models and a combination of several of these models. We implement a Bayesian shrinkage combination methodology to include information that is not captured by the individual models using expert forecasts as prior…

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as…

Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Colombian Exchange Rate Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Colombian Exchange Rate Norberto Rodríguez Niño  */

The main purposes of the first Report that the de Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) submits to Congress at the beginning of its regular meetings each year are: to examine the performance of the country's economy during the immediately preceding year; to explain the actions for…

This quarterly publication analyzes the evolution of key economic variables and indicators in seven regions of the country.:

This quarterly publication analyzes the evolution of the key economic variables and indicators in seven regions of the country:

Asset prices have recently become a common topic in economic debate. Nevertheless, much time has been spent in determining if they effectively exhibit a bubble component, and not in examining whether asset prices affectively contain relevant information concerning future market developments. This…

Asset price bubbles are amongst the most talked-about yet misunderstood topics in economics. Theoretical researchers debate between rational, nonrational or even non-existent bubbles, while empiricists tackle the issue with state-of-the-art econometric tools yielding mixed results.

EducationHARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOLMaster in Public Administration in International Development (MPA/ID)Cambridge, MA2008-2010UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDESMaster in EconomicsBogotá, Colombia2005-2006Economist2000-2005ExperienceMember of the Board of Directors of Banco de la República: February 2021 to…

The President, Iván Duque Márquez, officially invested the new members of the Board of Directors of Banco de la República, Ms. Bibiana Taboada Arango and Mr. Mauricio Villamizar Villegas, at a ceremony held at Casa de Nariño. These prominent economists will serve on the Central Bank’s Board of…

Since: 1990

The Bicentennial Collection of the National Economy Archive was a project of the Office of the Governor of Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) to commemorate the bicentennial of the independence of Colombia. The project began in 2010 and aimed to select a series of relevant books…

The paper examines the bidders behaviour in the Colombian government bond auctions during 2007 for the period in which there is no uncertainty in the supply. Three main findings are presented. First, in contrast with other treasury auctions (Castellanos [2]), the market clearing price in the…

The opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Banco de la República or its Board of Directors..   ABSTRACT  

As usual, we devote the last Blog of the year to provide a preliminary assessment of the performance of the Colombian economy over the year about to end, as well as to examine its outlook. In keeping with its commitment to transparency, Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia, BanRep)…

As usual, we devote the last Blog of the year to provide a preliminary assessment of the performance of the Colombian economy over the year about to end, as well as to examine its outlook.

Although Colombia’s unemployment rate (UR) has declined in recent years, it remains high in the international context. The most recent Labor Market Report from Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) includes a comparative analysis of Colombia’s unemployment rate and those of other…

Inflation is the generalized and sustained increase in the prices of goods and services. When inflation is high, money loses its value rapidly, which affects all sectors of the economy, especially households, as their purchasing power declines. This means that with the same amount of money, a…

Inflation is the generalized and sustained increase in the prices of goods and services. When inflation is high, money loses its value rapidly, which affects all sectors of the economy, especially households, as their purchasing power declines. This means that with the same amount of money, a…

The recent pension reform, formalized by Law 2381 of 2024, has introduced a new Comprehensive Social Protection System for Old Age, Disability, and Death of common origin. This reform establishes a system of four pillars: solidarity, semi-contributory, contributory, and voluntary savings.

Bank reserves are an economic policy instrument traditionally overseen by central banks that requires banks and other credit institutions to maintain a reserve of liquid assets in cash or in their accounts at the Central Bank. The reserve ratio is the ratio of these bank reserves to public deposits…

Central bank transparency refers to the clear and open communication of key information to the public by monetary policymakers. This includes the dissemination of data, forecasts, and decision-making processes that affect the economy. Transparency reduces the information gap between what monetary…

A recent paper published in Ensayos sobre Política Económica (ESPE), a journal of Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia), examines the constraints faced by Colombian smallholder farmers in accessing credit. Among other findings, the paper presents the results of a study done by Camilo…