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AbstractWe evaluate the returns to signaling occupation-specific skills using unique administrative data from a nationwide certification program in Colombia. The program certifies skills and issues three certificates: basic, intermediate, and advanced. We use regression discontinuity…

AbstractWe study the effect of macroeconomic announcements surprises on Colombian treasury bond spot rates in the medium term. For this, we employ a two-step regression approach proposed by Altavilla, Giannone and Modugno (2017), which takes into account the high frequency response to these…

Abstract This document presents a Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) of the zero-coupon public debt curve issued locally by the Colombian Government, adopting the methodological approach of Hamilton and Wu (2012) to solve the problems of identification and instability in the estimation…

Abstract This study aims to establish a comprehensive linkage between CO2 emissions and the composition of energy sources, economic growth, and reforestation, thereby shedding light on their intricate connections in Colombia over the period 1970-2018. First, we use different types of…

Nuestros resultados muestran que la existencia de subsidios implícitos ocasiona que los individuos prefieran estar en el actual sistema privado mientras se cotiza, pero en el público para pensionarse.

Abstract Our study analyzes the impact of debt moratorium policies, possibly the oldest approach to addressing repayment problems. Using Colombian administrative data, we compare firms that narrowly met the criteria for moratoria (eligible firms could not exceed 60 days overdue on…

Models with an occasionally binding credit constraint have been used to analyze financial crises and previous literature has highlighted that the specific form of this constraint is decisive for policymaking conclusions.

Abstract This document reviews the potential macroeconomic effects of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the use of individuals and businesses. A careful selection of the architecture, and the economic and technological design aspects of this digital form of central bank money that…

Gran parte de la población carece de las herramientas fundamentales para tomar decisiones económicas y financieras adecuadas, lo cual es crucial para mejorar su bienestar y protegerse frente a choques económicos o inflacionarios.

AbstractThis paper evaluates the fiscal and macroeconomic effects of some risks faced by the health system. These comprise changes in demographic and morbidity patterns, new medical technologies, inefficiencies in the system and the structure of the labor market. These factors represent a…

Abstract Based on monthly disaggregated Consumer Price Index (CPI) item series and macroeconomic series, we explore the advantages of forecast inflation from a disaggregated to an aggregated level by aggregating the forecasts. We compare the performance of this approach with the forecast obtained…

AbstractThis study follows a novel approach proposed by Angelico et al. (2022) using Twitter to measure inflation perception in Colombia in real time. By applying machine learning techniques, we implement two real-time indicators of inflation perception and show that both exhibit a…

AbstractWe study the behaviour of three quantitative sample surveys and a non sample inflation expectation report for Colombia. We found that expectations in Colombia; (i) are not strongly, i.e.

Identifying the impact of physicians on health outcomes is a challenging task due to the nonrandom sorting between physicians, hospitals, and patients. We overcome this challenge by exploiting a Colombian government program that randomly assigned 2,126 physicians to 618 small hospitals.

El efecto del fenómeno El Niño sobre los precios minoristas corre a través de su efecto sobre los costos mayoristas, exclusivamente, y no a través de cambios en la estructura del mercado minorista.

AbstractWe examine the adjustment of a small, open, emerging market economy (SOEME) to an unexpected increase in the minimum wage using an extended New-Keynesian SOE model that incorporates heterogeneous households, a flexible production structure, and a minimum wage rule. We calibrate the…

AbstractWe investigate the entry and exit of short-cycle higher education programs (SCPs), which last two or three years and can address local skill needs. Exploiting administrative data from Colombia, we study markets defined by geographic location and field of study. We find that…

AbstractForeign portfolio investments can affect the Colombian exchange market mainly through the demand for hedging that investors make in the foreign exchange derivatives market, and the exchange of dollars for pesos that materializes when investing in public debt securities (TES). This…

Abstract This study follows a novel approach proposed by Angelico et al. (2022) using Twitter to measure inflation perception in Colombia in real time. By applying machine learning techniques, we implement two real-time indicators of inflation perception and show that both exhibit a…

Abstract This paper examines the evolution of women's participation in the labor market from 1960 to 2018, shedding light on the complex factors that influence their labor opportunities. The study  emphasizes the significance of the historical context in  understanding these…

Abstract Although greenhouse gas emissions from the Latin America (LAC) region are not particularly significant, climate change is a worldwide challenge. Hence, we analyze the main factors that increase and mitigate emissions in LAC countries by emphasising the importance of preserving and…

AbstractThe objective of the study is to model and determine the tax incidence of a reduction in the corporate income tax in Colombia. To meet this objective, a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model DSGE of a closed economy with heterogeneous households and two types of capital…

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