Working Papers on Economics

Some evidence of smooth transition Some evidence of smooth transitíons nonlinearity in Colombian inflation

We compute both seigniorage rate and  welfare cost of inflation rate in Colombia using a  Sidrauski-type model  in which preferences are separable functions of the service flows of  non-durable goods and  money holdings.  The set of the estimated parameters imply…

Optimal Commodity Price Stabilization over the Business Cycle   Optimal Commodity Price Stabilization over the Business Cycle Rodrigo Suescún*

THE COLOMBIAN BANKING CRISIS: THE COLOMBIAN BANKING CRISIS: Macroeconomic Consequences and What to Expect Andres F. Arias  */

An Estimation Of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve in Colombia An Estimation Of the Neonlinear Phillips Curve in Colombia Javier Gómez and Juan Manuel Julio  */

Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Colombian Exchange Rate Bayesian Model Estimation and Selection for the Colombian Exchange Rate Norberto Rodríguez Niño  */

Transmission mechanisms and inflation targeting: the case of Colombia’s desinflation

Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market   Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market   Luis Eduardo Arango, Andrés González, and Carlos Esteban Posada *  Banco de la República  Summary  …

TAX EXPORTING: AN ANALYSIS USING A MULTIREGIONAL CGE MODEL   Tax Exporting: An Analysis Using a Multiregional CGE Model Ana María Iregui * Estudios Económicos Banco de la República

The effects of capital destruction are endogenized in a neoclassical growth model where the economy can optimally allocate part of its labor force to defend capital from being destroyed. The purpose is to explain the optimal allocation of the labor force between productive and deterrence…

In this paper I consider the following problem: there is a collection of exogenously given socially feasible sets, and for each one of them, each one of a group of individuals chooses from an individually feasible set. The fact that the product of the individually feasible sets is larger than…

General equilibrium theory was criticized for its apparent irrefutability, as seemingly implied by the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu theorem.  This view was challenged by Brown and Matzkin (1996), who showed the existence of testable restrictions on the equilibrium manifold. Brown and Matzkin…

This paper provides an empirical analysis of Colombian integration with East Asia using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, in which we assess the effects of several trade liberalization scenarios on trade flows and welfare.The results show that there is an important potential for the…

In a small macroeconomic model of the Colombian economy I investigate the problem of selecting a policy rule that is consistent with inflation targeting. I spell out the characteristics of the optimal feedback and output parameters in the rule, as well as for the optimal forecasting horizon for…

In this theoretical report, the identifiability property of a coincident index model is studied.  As a result, characterization of the identifiability conditions solves a model specification problem, which was detected in the design of an earlier index for the Colombian economy.   Key…

In this paper, we propose a methodology for calculating a leading index of the economic activity based on a modification of Stock and Watson’s (1989, 1991, 1992) approach. We use Kalman filter techniques for estimating the state space representation of the leading index model. The methodology is…

At the end of the last decade, the real activity in Colombia underwent the sharpest recession of the last fifty years. We postulate a non-triangular structural VAR model (Amisano and Giannini, 1997) to describe the dynamics of output, prices, unemployment and wages during the last two decades.…

This paper tests for purchasing power parity (PPP) between Colombia and its main trading partners using the Johansen framework of multivariate cointegration. The tests shows that PPP does not hold in the strong sense, but a clear purchasing power relationship is, nevertheless, show to exist. The…