Working Papers on Economics

Estimating credibility in Colombia's exchange rate target zone Estimating credibility in Colombia´s exchange rate target zone

Some evidence of smooth transition Some evidence of smooth transitíons nonlinearity in Colombian inflation

Dutch disease and banana exports in the Dutch disease and banana exports in the Colombian caribbean, 1910 - 1950      Resumen In 1994, the seven departaments of the Colombian Caribbean had a population of about 7.2 million, representing 21% of the conuntry's…

This paper examines the role of exchange rates in determining the short-and-long-run trade balance behavior for Colombia. Conventional wisdom says that a nominal devaluation improves the trade balance. This conjecture is rooted in the Bickerdike- Robinson-Metzler (BRM) and Marshall-Lerner (ML)…

The Impact of Transportation Infrastructure on the Colombian Economy 1905-1990: An Historical and Econometric Approach. The Impact of Transportation Infrastructure on the Colombian Economy 1905-1990: An Historical and Econometric Approach

Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules

Financial Inefficiency and Real Business Cycle in Colombia Financial Inefficiency and Real Business Cycle in Colombia      Camilo Zea*

A Model of the Nominal and Real Exchange in Colombia A Model of the Nominal and Real Exchange in Colombia   Javier Gómez*

We use a dynamic factor model proposed by Stock and Watson [1998, 1999, 2002a,b] to forecast Colombian inflation. The model includes 92 monthly series observed over the period 1999:01-2008:06. The results show that for short-run horizons, factor model forecasts significantly outperformed the…

First developed by Markowitz (1952), the mean-variance framework is the most widespread theoretical approximation to the portfolio problem. Nevertheless, successful application in the investment community has been limited. Assumptions such as normality of returns and a static correlation matrix…

A threefold analysis of commodity prices is carried out to observe their long-run behaviour, their short-run properties and the main determinants. According to the evidence, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis does not seem to be a property of most prices. The cycles of commodity prices are…

 We examine Colombian export transaction data from customs records in several dimensions. We begin with some basic statistics on the number and frequency of export transactions by a firm, overall and across individual markets. We then decompose the variation in overall exports into the…

In financial theory, the optimal allocation of assets and its relationship with profitability has been one of the main concerns; the question has always been if banks should focus or diversify their assets. In our case, we would like to answer this question focusing in diversification of the…

Using Bayesian estimation techniques, we estimate a small open economy DSGE model with credit-market imperfections for the Colombian economy. Using the estimated model we investigate what are the sources of business cycle fluctuations. We show that balance-sheet effects play an important role in…

This paper presents two versions of a spatial competition model for the banking sector. The first version, describes a framework that follows closely Salop´s spatial competition model. This version is modified in the second part by introducing the loan market and default risk probabilities for…

This paper analyses the role of a costly financial system in the transmission of monetary policy. The new-keynesian model for a small open economy is extended with a simple financial system based on Hamann and Oviedo (2006). The presence of the financial intermediation naturally allows the…

 We use data from Bogotá and Medellín to describe key quality of life indicators of each city and illustrate their spatial segregation at the census sector level and present evidence that the main two Colombian cities are highly spatially segregated according to their education levels and…

Evidence of the causal long-term relationship between budget deficit, money growth and inflation in Colombia is analyzed in this paper, considering the standard (M1), the narrowest (M0-Base) and the broadest (M3) definitions of money supply. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model with…

The demographic transition from high to low mortality and fertility rates was one of the most important structural changes during the twentieth Century in most Latin American economies. This paper uses a simple economic framework based on Galor and Weil (2000) for understanding the main forces…