Working Papers on Economics
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- Publicación |What were the effects of the 2012 tax reform on Colombia’s labor market? This article shows that reducing taxes associated with labor hiring increased formal employment, reduced informality, and lowered the unemployment rate. These findings provide valuable input for the design of public policies…
- Publicación |How are oil prices related to economic growth and monetary policy? Drawing on a broad sample of 31 emerging economies analyzed over the same period, this paper finds that, in the face of oil price fluctuations, both oil-importing and oil-exporting emerging economies that operate under an inflation…
- Publicación |The same monetary policy rate decision does not have uniform effects across regions of the country. Regions experiencing larger declines in inflation also tend to exhibit more pronounced slowdowns in economic activity and employment. This finding suggests that regional heterogeneity primarily…
- Publicación |More data, greater confidence: the LICA rate seeks to provide a more accurate measure of the overnight cost of money in Colombia by using a larger number of actual market transactions. As a result, it offers a more representative indicator, better reflecting liquidity conditions in the economy.
- Publicación |How can climate change affect food prices? This paper examines how extreme changes in precipitation and temperature have differentiated effects on wholesale food prices in Colombia. The results show that average climatic conditions across the country explain most of the observed price fluctuations.…
- Publicación |Gender gaps in university education do not originate in higher education institutions themselves; rather, they reflect accumulated inequalities and selection processes that occur earlier in the educational trajectory.
Working papers economics - Youth out of school and out of work: Dynamic and determinants in Colombia
Publicación |In Colombia, one in every five young people between the ages of 15 and 24 is neither studying nor working; these individuals are known as NEETs (Not in Education, Employment, or Training). This paper contributes to the analysis of NEET status in Colombia by adopting a cohort perspective. Using this…- Publicación |When we observe an increase in labor formality associated with a higher level of economic development, is it because more people gain access to the formal sector, or because those already working remain longer in formal jobs? This study shows that labor formality rises with the level of development…
- Publicación |The combination of economic theory and neural networks makes it possible to capture complex relationships and enhance the understanding of real exchange rate misalignment in Colombia.
- Publicación |To obtain timely and reliable forecasts of Colombia’s current account, this paper proposes a methodology that makes it possible to assess a large number of alternative models simultaneously and select those with the strongest predictive performance and greatest economic coherence. The results…
- Publicación |The Housing Market Conditions Indicator (HMCI) provides a comprehensive and timely measure for monitoring developments in Colombia’s housing market and for complementing the analysis of the country’s economic cycle.
- Publicación |Approach
Motivated by the slow convergence of the classical nonparametric kernel density estimator commonly used in the literature to estimate density functions, this paper investigates more efficient estimators of the density function and its derivative for the marginal density…
- Publicación |Cross-subsidization is not merely a redistributive strategy, but a central mechanism that favors demand and generates substantial gains for both consumers and retailers, and regulations that restrict this mechanism may have unintended effects on welfare.
- Publicación |The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity across institutions of different sizes: smaller institutions significantly restricted their supply of loans with maturities longer than 108 months, reducing both loan amounts and the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. In contrast, larger institutions absorbed…
- Publicación |Deteriorations in public debt and in the expected fiscal deficit generate statistically significant increases in the cyclical component of the long-term real interest rate and a steepening of the yield curve.
- Publicación |In contexts of sustained depreciation, firms face a trade-off between investing and engaging in financial hedging, suggesting the need for policies that improve the liquidity and accessibility of the derivatives market to reduce these costs and foster investment.
- Publicación |Increases in commodity prices are partially passed through to final processed food prices. A 1% increase in commodity prices raises producer prices by 0.6% and consumer prices by 0.3%.
- Publicación |Since the late 1970s, the Colombian economy has experienced nine slowdown episodes. Three coincided with classical GDP recessions. Five of the remaining six received little attention in the literature, despite showing clear signs of economic weakening.
- Publicación |Despite the growth of modern services, Colombia’s foreign trade remains concentrated in traditional services. This poses challenges for diversifying the export basket and for promoting more differentiated, higher-technology services that can be more easily integrated into global value chains.
- Publicación |Banco de la República has a highly effective instrument in the policy rate to achieve its objectives. However, uncertainty reduces that effectiveness; therefore, when uncertainty is higher, the Bank needs to act more forcefully to achieve the same objective.
