Working Papers on Economics
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- Publicación |The increase in stranded asset risk, as implied by the Paris Agreement, correlates with a 46% decrease in bank credit to fossil fuel companies relative to other economic sectors.
- Publicación |Abstract
The design of mechanisms for sustainable irrigation water management requires a deep understanding of the value of water to local communities. We present results from a lab-in-the-field incentivized game that sheds light on irrigation water overvaluation patterns among…
- Publicación |The results are relevant for future discussions on climate policies, as they indicate that carbon taxes will be effective but probably more regressive than previously thought.
- Publicación |For 2017, it was found that most imports were destined for intermediate consumption, especially for the manufacturing and trade sectors, and that these sectors, therefore, may be the most affected by changes in non-tariff measures and the value of imported goods.
- Publicación |The analysis shows how the demand for cash and checks from 1923 to 2023 was shaped by economic activity, inflation dynamics, the development of the financial system, technological innovation, and significant historical shocks such as wars, political instability, or the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Publicación |Forecast evaluation measures support the implementation of this method, and the results show a reduction in the error of inflation forecasts across various time horizons.
- Publicación |The disruption in container freight rates caused a 0.4% loss in welfare in Colombia. This percentage represents a decrease in the present value of the population's consumption due to the drop in real wages and is attributable solely to the direct effects of freight rates on the goods that Colombia…
- Publicación |Abstract
The housing sector is one of the most relevant in terms of economic and financial stability. Understanding its behavior can prevent bubbles and busts in the economy. There are many studies about the corporate bond’s spreads, but the studies about mortgage…
- Publicación |Este documento evalúa el Proyecto de Acto Legislativo aprobado en su sexto debate, el cual busca aumentar los recursos transferidos a las regiones a través del Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP). Desde una perspectiva histórica, el sistema de transferencias a los territorios se fortaleció con…
- Publicación |Transparency is often emphasized as a key element for central bank independence and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Between 2018 and 2019, the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) undertook a significant overhaul of its monetary decision-making process, which led to significant…
- Publicación |This paper evaluates seven output gap models for real-time estimates, based on three criteria: stability of estimations on new observations, data revisions and/or methodological changes; inflation forecasting accuracy; and potential output response to structural economic shocks.
- Publicación |Most macroeconomic labor literature on estimating matching functions does not consider spatial spillover effects. However, job search and vacancy-filling processes often involve neighboring locations, as local workers can search for and fill vacancies in nearby labor markets.
- Publicación |This study examines the determinants of sovereign risk, focusing on the impact of geopolitical risk in emerging market economies (EMEs) sovereign risk metrics. Using local projection techniques, we evaluate the effects of geopolitical risk on credit default swaps (CDS) and EMBI indices in EMEs,…
- Publicación |This paper analyzes whether the policy of VAT exemption days, implemented in Colombia between 2020 and 2022 for some products and merchandise lines, had a positive effect on the consumption of such exempted goods.
- Publicación |Abstract
In this paper, we study the coexistence of cash and electronic payments introducing some distortions in the payments markets to understand the widespread use of cash, specially in emerging countries. Following Lagos and Wright (2005) we model explicitly some frictions in…
- Publicación |In Colombia, 50% of labor income is lower than the legal MW level. It is in this context that we analyze the effect of increasing MW on labor income distribution and its inequality, household income distribution and its inequality, and on monetary poverty prevalence.
- Publicación |Healthcare expenditure in Colombia is expected to increase by 35% over the next eight years, due to population aging, rising costs, and domestic policies. These trends, in a context of high levels of informality and affiliation to the subsidized regime, add significant pressure to public finances.
- Publicación |This paper examines the relationship between three government support measures (debt moratorium, credit guarantee programs, and payroll subsidies) and the firm’s payment behavior on loans in Colombia
- Publicación |We evaluate the effectiveness of consumer debt moratoria, one of the earliest policy interventions aimed at alleviating debt burdens. Using administrative data from Colombia, our study compares households that narrowly qualified for the moratorium (eligible up to 60 days overdue on their mortgages…
- Publicación |Using monthly information on retail trade, we study the short-term dynamics of household consumption variations in Colombia. Based on a sample of retail trade excluding fuels and vehicles, we find that the growth of household consumption can be explained by lags in the Economy Monitoring Indicator…
