Working Papers on Economics

This paper identifies Okun´s law in Colombia between 1984 and 2016 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as there is evidence of a long-term relationship between the unemployment rate and the GDP. Results suggest that after a one percent increase in GDP, the unemployment rate is reduced…

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la Republica or its Board of Directors.

We study the relation between oil prices and stock market returns for a set of six countries, including important oil consumers and demanders. We study interconnectedness between oil and stock markets and characterize the dynamics of transmission and reception between them. We test for Granger…

This paper examines the long-term trends observed in the standard of living of the Colombian population during the past one hundred years, with special attention on health. We construct a historical index of human development for Colombia (HIHDC) for the 19th and 20th centuries by gender. We…

We study connectedness and causality between oil prices and exchange rates dynamically. Using data on the WTI and exchange rate returns for six countries in which oil production is a major production activity, we show that oil prices are net receptors of spillovers from excahnge rate markets.…

We carry out a reading analysis that consists of two elements. First, we observe the coherence between monetary policy actions and press releases. In this case, we found that inflation and growth are significant themes in the adoption of the policy measures between September 2004 and March 2016…

In complex systems, homogeneity (i.e. lack of diversity) has been documented as a source of fragility. Likewise, financial sector’s homogeneity has been documented as a contributing factor for systemic risk. We assess homogeneity in the Colombian case by measuring how similar banks are regarding…

Mergers of firms producing complementary products have ambiguous effects on consumer welfare. Consumers benefit if the firm, motivated by the internalized profits created by the complementarity, lowers prices. Consumers are hurt if the firm uses bundles to exert price discrimination, making…

Vacancies are the center of any job creation process. In this paper, we study firms’ hiring behavior in a way that is directly related to vacancies. To understand the dynamic relationship between hires and vacancies, we estimate what we called a hiring function. Even though we cannot observe…

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

ABSTRACT

Abstract: The paper provides some evidence on the relevance of global uncertainty and risk aversion and the lesser importance of US interest rates for the global financial and business cycles. As framework, we use a global semi-structural model augmented with financial and…

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

According to traditional literature, liquidity risk in individual banks can turn into a system-wide financial crisis when either interbank credit exposures or bank runs are present. This paper shows that this phenomenon can also arise when individual liquidity risk trans- forms into system-wide…