Working Papers on Economics

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 ‘Apertura e integración de Colombia a la red mundial de comercio: mucho ruido y pocas nueces’

‘Analisis del Indice de Confianza del Consumidor en Colombia: Un FAVAR estructural’

Enfoque: el Índice de Confianza del Consumidor (ICC) es un instrumento ampliamente usado en el análisis económico debido a su mayor oportunidad…

‘Determinantes socioeconómicos y convergencia espacial del bienestar biológico: El caso de la estatura en Colombia 1920-1990’ 

Enfoque: la estatura promedio de una población ha sido utilizada en la historia económica como un…

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

Economic activity nowcasting (i.e. making current-period estimates) is convenient because most traditional measures of economic activity come with substantial lags. We aim at nowcasting ISE, a short-term economic activity indicator in Colombia. Inputs are ISE’s lags and a dataset of payments…

This paper proposes new monthly estimates for the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) and the output gap for Colombia. These rely on a New Keynesian small open economy model following González et al (2013), augmented by an Okun’s Law equation. The resulting output gap closely…

Macroprudential policy in Colombia is described along with a discussion of the main challenges faced by the authorities in implementing it and a review of episodes in which macroprudential measures were taken. An overview and some estimates of their effectiveness in preventing the buildup of…

This paper explores the behavior of Colombia labour market flows. We focus on job creation and job destruction from the plant´s perspective, and on hiring and separations from the worker´s point of view. We show how these labour flows change across different dimensions such as, firm’s size,…

The international financial crisis of 2007-2009 strongly affected asset prices, risk and growth in the advanced economies, leading to large capital movements between these economies and the emerging countries. The capital movements were reflected in sharp fluctuations in the emerging countries’…

The functioning of large-value payment systems (LVPSs) can be affected when some of its participants voluntarily decide to delay their payments until they can totally fund them with the payments received from other participants. This behaviour, known as the free-rider problem, can cause an under…

Even though international authorities encourage open and wide access to large value payment systems, the optimal level of access, or tiering, is still an open question. In the case of real-time gross settlement systems (RTGS), the level of access, or tiering, may be limited by the tradeoff…

We examine how liquidity is exchanged in different types of Colombian money market networks (i.e. secured, unsecured, and central bank’s repo networks). Our examination first measures and analyzes the centralization of money market networks. Afterwards, based on a simple network optimization…

We implement a modified version of DebtRank, a measure of systemic impact inspired in feedback centrality, to recursively measure the contagion effects caused by the default of a selected financial institution. In our case contagion is a liquidity issue, measured as the decrease in financial…

A core goal of regulators and financial authorities is to understand how market prices convey information on the financial health of its participants. From this viewpoint we build an Early-Warning Indicators System (EWIS) that allows for identifying those financial institutions perceived as…

Abstract: In this paper we try to elucidate the relationship between foreign and domestic banks external indebtedness and the business cycle in Colombia. After a brief review of related literature, we characterize the historical behavior of banking external indebtedness in…

This paper presents a methodology to estimate the intraday liquidity that systemically important entities (SIE) need to fulfill all its obligations in a timely fashion, when a simulated failure-to-pay from its main liquidity supplier by discretionary concepts of payment occurs. Using the Bank of…

Large value payment flows can be disrupted by several types of failures such as operational incidents, problems experienced by the administrator of the payments settlement system, outages in the communications networks and the inability of a participant to submit payments due to insufficient…

An interacting network coupling financial institutions’ multiplex (i.e. multi-layer) and financial market infrastructures’ single-layer networks gives an accurate picture of a financial system’s true connective architecture. We examine and compare the main properties of Colombian multiplex and…