Working Papers on Economics

The existence of wage differentials across sectors is a widely observed phenomenon. This paper provides new elements to understand inter and intra-sectoral wage differentials in Colombia by analysing a wage setting survey of 1305 firms and emphasizing the role of firm characteristics. The…

Classic financial theory relies on the absolute perfection of capital markets, which results in one of the milestones of theoretical corporate finance: the firm’s value is invariant to the choice of capital structure. As an extension to the aforementioned proposition by Modigliani and Miller (…

This paper uses a survey on wage formation that was applied to 1,305 Colombian firms to study wage-setting decisions with respect to newly hired employees. The Colombian case is interesting, since the country´s labour market performance, especially its unemployment rate and level of informality…

We assess the effect of the homicide rate, individual´s perception of security in their neighborhood of residence, and of the effect of their having been victimized, on life satisfaction. We find a negative effect of the homicide rate on life satisfaction for the subsample of individuals living…

A dynamic linear model for data revisions and delays is proposed. This model extends Jacobs & Van Norden's [13] in two ways. First, the "true" data series is observable up to a fixed period of time M. And second, preliminary figures might be biased estimates of the true series. Otherwise,…

Preliminary and delayed Colombian GDP reports are replaced with optimal in-sample now-casts of “true” GDP figures derived from a model for data revisions. The new GDP time series is augmented with optimal out-of-sample forecasts and back-casts of the “true” GDP figures derived from the same…

The role of the exchange rate and the exchange rate regime in the monetary policy decision-making process in Colombia is described. The rationale for the intervention of the Central Bank in the FX market is explained and the experience in this regard is reviewed. Special attention is given to…

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present…

This paper analyzes the evolution and impact of capital flows in Colombia over the past five years. An examination of the nature and composition of the capital flows indicates that to large extent they have originated in foreign direct investment, especially in the oil and mining sectors. The…

We use hedonic price models to estimate the value households are willing to pay to avoid violent crime in the city of Bogotá. We find that households living in the highest socioeconomic level (stratum 6) pay up to 7.2% of their house values in order to prevent average homicide rates from…

The focus of this study is to build, from the ‘bottom-up’, a market with artificially intelligent adaptive agents based on the institutional arrangement of the Colombian Foreign Exchange Market (1994-1999) in order to determine simple agents’ design, rules and interactions that are sufficient to…

This paper examines the relationship between mortgage default decisions and relevant observable variables under the light of a random utility model. The focus of the study is the Colombian mortgage market between 1997 and 2004 using two separate data sets that are matched using simulation…

  This paper contains a nonlinear, nonstationary autoregressive model whose intercept changes deterministically over time. The intercept is a flexible function of time, and its construction bears some resemblance to neural network models. A modeling technique, modified from one for single…

Domiciliary public utility services in Colombia have a cross subsidy system which charges subsidized rates to the households who live in houses located in strata associated to low wealth levels, and taxed rates to the better off. We assesses the hypothesis that the flow of subsidies that…

In this paper, we modelled the Colombian long run per capita economic growth (1925-2005) using a Markov switching regime model with both fixed (FTP) and time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) to explain regime changes in the economic growth. We found evidence of non-linearity in the per…

This paper attempts to explain the decrease and reversal of the education gap between males and females. Given a continuum of agents, the education decisions are modelled as an assignment game with endogenous types. In the first stage agents choose their education level and in the second they…

The Colombian economy experienced several shocks in the past ten years. The permanent fall of inflation, the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) and a financial crisis altered the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Low inflation and IT reduced inflation persistence and contributed to…