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Following the macroeconomic shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and the disruptions caused by the National Strike of 2021, the Colombian economy exhibited a notable recovery in 2022, with a real GDP increase of 7.3% and economic activity levels 10.4% above those recorded in 2019. This achievement…

In 2024, the Colombian economy began a comeback in its economic activity recovery process, recording an annual growth rate of 1.7%, surpassing the 0.6% seen in 2023. Furthermore, headline annual inflation continued its convergence to the target, concluding 2024 at 5.2%, amid moderated yearly…

In March, inflation decreased - although less than anticipated - and remains above the 3% target. Over the next two years, it is expected that inflation will continue to decline, converging gradually toward the target.

Between September 2024 and March 2025, the global economy was characterized by high uncertainty and increased volatility in financial markets. In Colombia, the economy continued to show signs of recovery and inflation kept declining, although fiscal risks increased.

Annual inflation is computed using the consumer price index (CPI), the twelve months included in this calculation are weighted equally. Consequently, price variations during the period analyzed may lead to an underestimation or overestimation of the signifcance of the information included in the…

Several studies have pointed to the influence of the minimum legal wage (SM for its Spanish acronym) on the labor market and the observed distribution of wages and prices in the economy, among other effects. In 2022, Banco de la República conducted a comprehensive study on the macroeconomic effects…

The activities and operations of an industrial company rely largely on energy sources such as electricity and gas, in addition to other elements, including raw materials and labor. Manufacturing operations are the primary consumer of multiple energy sources within the industry sector, whereas…

Inflation has fallen significantly, from 9.3% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024. During this year and into the next, inflation would continue to decline towards the inflation target.

One of the central inputs for Banco de la República’s macroeconomic forecasting models is the long-term rate of growth of the economy. In technical terms, this is known as steady-state growth, defned as the growth rate of the economy in the absence of new shocks, also understood as the reference…

As noted in recent reports from the Board of Directors of Banco de la República to Congress, in recent quarters much of the strength of economic activity, particularly domestic demand, has relied on household consumption, whose outstanding performance has been characterized by growth rates…

Spending inflexibility is a structural feature of Colombia’s Government Budget (PGN). This condition reflects the existence of earmarked revenues, the establishment of spending commitments through the Constitution and the law, and the state’s permanent obligations related to pensions and debt…

Interest rates on public debt tend to respond to different determinants, depending on maturity. Since 2024, short-term interest rates on Colombian peso-denominated public debt (TES) have declined in line with the cuts in Banco de la República’s monetary policy rate (MPR). On the contrary, long-term…

Inflation increased more than the Bank anticipated during the second quarter of the year. However, with a cautious monetary policy and no significant increases in labor costs, prices are projected to rise at a slower pace, closer to the 3% target, in 2026 and 2027.

Macroeconomic EnvironmentIn 2025, the international economic environment has been significantly affected by the announcements from the US government to increase tariffs on its imports, including those from Colombia. This has generated economic uncertainty, trade disruptions, and has affected…

Macroeconomic imbalances are understood as the deviations of key variables from their long-term equilibrium values. These imbalances can accumulate over time, often during economic boom periods, increasing an economy’s vulnerability to adverse shocks and preface economic contractions and financial…

Prices increased more than expected during the third quarter of the year. However, inflation is still expected to decrease in 2026 and fall within the range of 2 % to 4 %, continuing to approach the 3 % target, but at a somewhat slower pace. It is estimated that inflation will be at 5.1 % by the…

Between March and September 2025, global financial markets showed signs of recovery. However, uncertainty persists due to high global debt, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts.

Artículo publicado en: Revista Colombiana de Estadística, vol. 35, núm. 3, pp. 477-506, diciembre, 2012.  

Artículo publicado en: Ensayos sobre Política Económica, vol. 30, núm. 68, pp. 274-295, junio, 2012  

The United States Federal Reserve has guaranteed Banco de la República access to repos through FIMA. This facility has been open since 6 April 2020. Eligible institutions are central banks with custody accounts for US Treasury securities at the Federal Reserve. Banco de la República would make use…

In its virtual meeting today, the Committee for the Coordination and Surveillance of the Financial System, whose members are the Minister of Finance, the Governor of the Central Bank, the Financial Superintendent, and the Director of FOGAFIN (National Deposit Insurance Fund), analyzed aspects that…

The Covid-19 pandemic brought about an unprecedented deterioration of the Colombian labor market, both in terms of its pace and magnitude. About a quarter of pre-crisis employment was destroyed in March and April, and while a slight upturn in occupation occurred in May, its annual falls continue to…

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met on April 9 to conclude the Article IV consultation with Colombia. In its report, the IMF highlights the country's macroeconomic policy framework and the short-term response to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The flexible…