Servicios
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1. Macroeconomic SummaryIn December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms…
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As foreseen in the April Report, inflation began to fall in the second quarter of 2023. It is expected to continue declining in the following quarters and return near the 3% target by the end of 2024.
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Inflation has decreased since April, and it is projected to continue to reduce significantly throughout 2024 as it converges toward 3%.
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IntroductionBanco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has…
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International Macroeconomic Environment
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During 2022, Colombian companies that resorted to international fnancing sources faced interest rate increases and a sharp depreciation of the peso against the dollar (21%). This may have important implications for the balance sheets of real sector companies with a negative exchange rate mismatch…
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The increasing digitization of fnancial services has increased the system’s exposure to cyber-attacks. This could compromise the security of the information, its operability and, therefore, its stability. The materialization of a cyber-risk event that affects the payment system could disrupt the…
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After the 2008 fnancial crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) drove the benchmark interest rate to historically low levels that became more pronounced in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic. At the same time, starting in March 2020 several measures to provide the market with liquidity were adopted,…
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This special report analyzes the dynamics of Colombia's real estate market and mortgage credit, identifying potential sources of risk that could affect economic and financial stability. Specifically, it examines variables associated with the housing sector, its financing, levels of supply and…
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This special report analyzes the behavior of credit institutions (CIs) and their exposition to credit risk with the latest available information to continue with the monitoring of loans delinquency. According to the analysis presented, as of September 2023, credit continued with the slowdown shown…
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The dynamics of the main markets in which the financial system participates (e.g., credit, deposits, and fund management, among others) are closely linked to the behavior of the household sector, given its preponderant role in each of them. Considering the above and the occurrence of high growth in…
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Saving-investment flows for the third quarter of 20231. By institutional sectorAccording to the Financial Accounts calculated by Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia), in the third quarter of 2023, the current account deficit of the Colombian economy reached 1.4% of the…
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This special report analyzes the dynamics of the real estate market and mortgage credit portfolio in Colombia for 2024, with the purpose of identifying potential vulnerability sources that could affect economic and financial stability. In particular, it studies the performance of variables…
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This box aims to analyze the relationship between the rate spread between the overnight IBR and the MPR, and the liquidity demand in the financial system.82 To achieve this objective, the differences in monetary policy implementation among Colombia, the United States, and the European Union are…
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Law 2381 of 2024, “Whereby the Comprehensive Social Protection System for Old Age Disability, and Death (Sistema de Protección Social Integral para la Vejez, Invalidez y Muerte, in Spanish) of common origin is established, and other provisions are issued,” creates the Reserve Fund of the…
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Monetary policy plays a fundamental role in the pursuit of economic stability and its effectiveness is closely linked to its credibility. In the context of monetary policy, credibility refers to the degree of confidence that economic agents have that the central bank will achieve its objectives of…
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The levels of the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) are periodically set after deliberation processes within the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia). These discussions are informed by a detailed assessment of the performance of inflation, inflation…
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Foreign investors made significant sales of their holdings of local public debt securities during 2023. Specifically, they sold COP 9.1 t in peso-denominated TES and COP 2.4 t in UVR-denominated TES respectively. This represented a 11.7% decrease in their balance in pesos compared to what was seen…
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On 19 December 2023, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) announced the start of a Foreign Reserves (FRs) Accumulation Program for a maximum amount of USD 1,500 million (m). The purpose of this program is to ensure adequate levels of external liquidity and prepare for a potential…
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In recent years, foreign investors have exhibited a lower appetite for Colombian equities, with their participation decreasing from 16% at the end of 2018 to 11% in June 2024. This decline may be attributed to the reduction in Colombia’s participation in international benchmark indexes for emerging…
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The monetary policy of Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) aims to maintain a low and stable inflation rate in coordination with overall economic policy. To achieve this, Banrep follows an inflation targeting framework within a flexible exchange rate regime; in other words,…
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This report analyzes several indicators to measure the concentration of credit and deposit markets in Colombia and in some peer jurisdictions (Mexico, Peru, and Chile). Additionally, recognizing that the relationship between concentration, competition, and market power is not direct, two exercises…
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This special report analyzes the exposure and performance of credit risk among credit institutions (CIs) with the latest available information, aiming to continue monitoring the evolution of delinquency in detail. According to the analysis presented in this report and aligned with the adjustment…
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ApproachFiscal rules, also known as fiscal responsibility norms, refer to restrictive measures of fiscal policy at either the national or subnational level, through which the sustainability of public finances is sought to be guaranteed. These rules can be quantitative (those that set numerical…
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Inflation indicators remain above the target of most central banks despite continuing to show a decline in most countries.
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