Working Papers on Economics

Structural time series models, frequency domain analysis, the HP-filter, and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition, are used to observe, some peculiarities of the business cycle. Such properties are those related to the volatility of the temporary component and the duration of the business cycle…

Exploiting spatial and temporal variations in the number of seizures from criminal organizations, I estimate regional fixed effects models of the increase in the number of properties confiscated on the main crime rates. From 2002 security strategies changed, and as a result,…

In this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. While most of the literature has found that expansionary shocks have a positive effect on aggregate price indices, we study the effect on individual prices of a sample of four commodities. This set of commodity…

This document presents how to estimate and implement a structural VAR-X model under long run and impact identification restrictions. Estimation by bayesian and maximum likelihood methods is presented. Applications of the structural VAR-X for impulse response functions to structural shocks,…

In this paper we study the structure of the fiscal system of the Viceroyalty of New Granada towards the end of the colonial period. Then we discuss how the tax system inhereted from the Spanish Empire evolved over the period 1821-1850. The conclusion that emerges from the review of the evidence…

In the past decade the Colombian Economic Authorities undertook a series of measures that reduced the structural fiscal deficit, decreased the Government currency mismatch and deepened the local fixed-rate public bond market. This paper presents some evidence suggesting that these improvements…

In this paper we show the importance of subject of degree in explaining the gender wage gap in Colombia. In order to minimize the influence of gender differences in experience, promotions, and job changes on the wage gap, we focus on college graduates who have a formal job and who have been in…

This paper propose indicator variables for the implementation of monetary policy in an inflation targeting regime. Using constant interest rate projections, the notion of a target-compatible interest rate is presented. This variable allows to extract some characteristics that the expected future…

We estimate a non-parametrical Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and find strong evidence rejecting the classical linear CAPM. Furthermore, we find inconsistent linear betas for a series of stocks in the Colombian stock exchange (BVC), supporting the hypothesis of a better and consistent…

Typically, when forecasting inflation rates, there are a variety of individual models and a combination of several of these models. We implement a Bayesian shrinkage combination methodology to include information that is not captured by the individual models using expert forecasts as prior…

This document presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rule of thumb (Non-Ricardian) agents and both nominal price and wage rigidities. The model follows closely that of Galí et al. (2004) and expands it to include a second way form of heterogeneity (besides the Non-Ricardian…

We study the determinants of sovereign default risk in Colombia by focusing on different time spans of risk which are indicated by yield spreads of government bonds with different maturities. Cointegration regressions are performed to analyze whether the drivers of short-run default risk are…

To evaluate whether transparency is beneficial, it is usual to assume that the central bank may choose one of two options, opacity versus truthful communication. However, the monetary policymaker may have incentives to misrepresent private information so as to reduce economic volatility by…

We analyse three models to determine the conditions under which reserve requirements are used as a part of an optimal monetary policy framework in an inflation targeting regime. In all cases the Central Bank (CB) minimizes an objective function that depends on deviations of inflation from its…

This paper measures the impact of strengthening the security policy on the rural labour market in Colombia by exploiting the structural change in the number of rural seizures. The new policy produced dissimilar effects across gender, age-groups, and types of occupation. For adults, especially…

SeveralObservers of Latin America have underscored the notion that an emerging "consensus" regarding the role of the State in the economy surfaced during the 1980's (v.g World Bank, 1993; Williamson, 1993). Starting from an emphasis on issues regarding stabilization, there are three main and…

Transmission mechanisms and inflation targeting: the case of Colombia’s desinflation

Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market   Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market   Luis Eduardo Arango, Andrés González, and Carlos Esteban Posada *  Banco de la República  Summary  …

TAX EXPORTING: AN ANALYSIS USING A MULTIREGIONAL CGE MODEL   Tax Exporting: An Analysis Using a Multiregional CGE Model Ana María Iregui * Estudios Económicos Banco de la República