Working Papers on Economics

This paper evaluates the role of rural infrastructure on the performance of some agricultural crops in Colombia. The study utilizes geo-referenced cross sectional data of four crops, coffee, rice, beans and plantains, collected for the majority of municipalities. Using genetic matching models,…

Central banks in emerging countries frequently build-up (diminish) reserves while attempting to depreciate (appreciate) their domestic currencies. Even if these interventions are effective, they often entail various costs. Basu (2012), nonetheless, proposes a model in which the sole announcement…

This paper tests the importance of the financial structure of banks in the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission in Colombia, using an unbalanced panel of 51 banks for the period of 1996:4-2014:8. We find that an increase in the interbank rate (proxy of the intervention rate) has…

This paper builds a general equilibrium model that incorporates banks, financial frictions, default and a capital requirements. Ex-ante heterogeneous households decide how much to save or borrow for the sake of consumption (consumer credit) or the provision of housing services(mortgages). These…

This paper studies the effects of an in utero program on birth outcomes addressed to vulnerable pregnant women. We use information from the Buen Comienzo program, an initiative run by the local government of Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia. In order to identify the effects we…

In this paper output gaps that include financial cycle information are evaluated against models used in policy analysis by the Colombian central bank. Employing this dataset is no trivial matter, since policy related models are the only relevant yardstick, and emerging economies (such as…

Inglés: In spite of the increasing evidence that has revealed that early access to financial services has long-term impacts, children and adolescents continue to face major obstacles to be financially included, particularly in the developing world. This document presents the main results of a…

In this paper we formulate a dynamic multi-unit auction model to characterize bidding behavior in hydro power dominated electricity markets. Our model implies that, in order to maximize expected profits, hydro producers will submit bid prices above its marginal production costs that account for…

Together with a set of not commonly reported ones, the most widely known stylized facts of high frequency Nominal Exchange Rates in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru with respect to the US Dollar are studied and interpreted to the light of recent literature in this paper.

This  paper  uses  the  Colombian  National  Health  Survey  to  analyze  the relationship between education and risky health behaviors, namely smoking, heavy drinking, being obese, and unsafe sexual behavior, by estimating the education gradient…

This paper analyzes the role of the Great Depression and protectionism in the Colombian industrialization of the early 1930s as well as the role of other determinants in the rapid industrialization that took place during the period 1934-1953. We conclude that the market pushed industrialization…

Many central banks that have opted for monetary autonomy have also been reluctant to relinquish control over the value of their currencies. As a result, they have operated through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions.  However, in the context of the monetary trilemma, both…

We present a stochastic frontier model with random inefficiency parameters which is able to capture the influence of risk-taking on bank efficiency and that distingues those effects among banks with different characteristics. Cost and profit efficiency are found to be over- and underestimated…

We use experimental data of a training program in 2005 in Colombia. We find that even up to ten years ahead, the JeA program had a positive and significant effect on the probability to work in the formal sector, and to work for a large firm. Applicants in the treatment group also contributed…

The paper presents a global model for analysis and projections. The model features a handful of elements that make it suitable for analyzing three broad sets of topics; first, systemic risk and its transmission to country risk premiums; second, the transmission from country risk premiums to…

This paper has as main objective to build a composite metric of financial soundness for the private corporate sector in Colombia. Instead of relying on the individual and sometimes restrictive financial ratio analysis approach, the purpose of this document is to provide a single metric aimed at…

This document explores an alternative strategic asset allocation framework for foreign exchange reserves, whose main purpose is to maximize the risk-adjusted returns maintaining the objectives of liquidity and safety of a foreign reserves’ portfolio.   The overall portfolio can be…

Using a stylized model in which output is measured with error, we derive the optimal policy response to the demand shock signal and to changes in the measurement error volatility from two different perspectives: the minimization of the expected loss (from which we derive the ‘standard’ policy)…

Inglés: We propose a maximal covering location problem with a budget constraint to determine the optimal location of facilities that provide fast police assistance to homicide hot spots, to mitigate criminal activity in Medellín (Colombia). We use the Google Maps Application Programming…

This work uses readily accessible data about the stocks of unemployed workers, labor force and duration of unemployment to measure the job finding and separation rates for Colombia from 1984 to 2014. It also evaluates the relative contribution of these rates to the fluctuations of unemployment…