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- Publicación |Exposure of the economy and the financial system to natural phenomenaThe El Niño phenomenon and the August earthquake could affect economic activity and place additional pressures on prices and public spending.Most credit institutions have limited exposure to the areas affected by the earthquake.
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External income is fundamental to the economic development of countries, particularly for developing economies such as Colombia. These flows constitute an important component of national income and support economic growth by enabling the expansion of production, investment, the adoption of…
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The 1991 Political Constitution assigned Banco de la República the mandate of maintaining low and stable inflation, in coordination with the general economic policy. To fulfill this mandate, since 1999, Colombia has adopted an inflation targeting scheme under a flexible exchange rate system, in…
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Inflation expectations refer to the level of inflation that economic agents anticipate in the future. In other words, they are the estimates made by individuals or groups regarding expected increases in the prices of goods and services most frequently consumed by households.
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This box analyzes how a significant increase in the minimum wage may affect inflation. The exercise considers a scenario in which such an increase exceeds past inflation and labor productivity growth by 17.2 percentage points (pp), a magnitude consistent with the adjustment considered for 2026.…
- Publicación |Macroeconomic EnvironmentGlobal economy in 2025 was marked by an environment of high political and trade uncertainty, driven by the imposition of new tariffs by the United States.However, partial trade agreements between the US and other major economies were reached over the course of the year,…
- Publicación |International uncertainty remains extremely high and continues to affect global economy
Conflict in the Middle East raised international prices for oil, natural gas, and fertilizers. This increased production and transportation costs, put upward pressure on prices in several countries, and led…
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From a theoretical perspective, tradable-goods inflation can be described by a New Keynesian Phillips curve for an open economy, in which current inflation depends on inflation expectations and real marginal costs. Since the latter variable is not observable, the literature generally…
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El fenómeno de El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENSO, por su sigla en inglés) es una alteración natural de origen oceánico y atmosférico que se manifiesta en el océano Pacífico tropical central y oriental. Su fase cálida (conocida como El Niño) corresponde a un calentamiento persistente y anómalo de…
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En Colombia las tasas de interés desempeñan un papel fundamental en la economía, el acceso al crédito y la solidez fiscal del Gobierno Central. La Junta Directiva del Banco de la República es la encargada de determinar la tasa de interés de política monetaria (TPM), que corresponde a la tasa de…
- Publicación |Financial Market Infrastructures in ColombiaPayment Infrastructure in Financial MarketsIn 2025, Banrep’s large-value payment system, the Deposit Accounts System (CUD, for its acronym in Spanish), exhibited greater activity. The average daily value of settled transactions increased by 19.5% compared…
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The escalation of geopolitical conflicts has heightened global uncertainty and adversely affected markets, economic growth, and inflation.
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In recent decades, Earth’s average temperature has steadily increased, with the average over the past three years surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold set by the 2016 Paris Agreement1 (Graph B2.1). The Agreement states that higher levels of global warming would substantially raise the risks of…
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Inflation continued to rise in the first months of the year and moved further away from its target, driven by higher labor costs, strong domestic demand, and disruptions in the production of some goods. Additional increases in inflation are expected throughout the year; however, monetary…
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During January and March 2026, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) increased the monetary policy interest rate from 9.25% to 11.25% (Graph B1.1). The pace of this increase was faster than that of typical benchmark-rate adjustments. It was adopted in a context where many…
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In recent discussions of Colombia’s macroeconomic environment, relatively little attention has been paid to the changing relationship between Banco de la República’s (Banrep) monetary policy rate and market interest rates. Such discussions often assume that Banrep’s policy rate is the sole or at…
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In 2025, the Colombian economy continued on its path of recovery, with economic activity registering an annual growth of 2.6%, surpassing the 1.5% observed in 2024. In turn, annual headline inflation converged more slowly toward the target, ending 2025 at 5.1%, close to the 5.2% recorded at the…
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Financial conditions reflect the state of financial factors that, through various channels (e.g., leverage), influence the current and future evolution of key economic variables (Hatzius et al., 2010). Accordingly, the Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Colombia is constructed to synthesize…
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The dynamics of the primary markets in which the financial system participates (e.g., credit, deposits, and fund management, among others) are intricately connected to the performance of the household sector, given its significant role in each of these areas. This report is created considering…
