Main Reports NEW

Interest rates on public debt tend to respond to different determinants, depending on maturity. Since 2024, short-term interest rates on Colombian peso-denominated public debt (TES) have declined in line with the cuts in Banco de la República’s monetary policy rate (MPR). On the contrary, long-…

Spending inflexibility is a structural feature of Colombia’s Government Budget (PGN). This condition reflects the existence of earmarked revenues, the establishment of spending commitments through the Constitution and the law, and the state’s permanent obligations related to pensions and debt…

As noted in recent reports from the Board of Directors of Banco de la República to Congress, in recent quarters much of the strength of economic activity, particularly domestic demand, has relied on household consumption, whose outstanding performance has been characterized by growth rates…

A weaker fiscal position can increase the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks and limit the scope for policy responses. This vulnerability may translate into higher risks for the financial system.

One of the central inputs for Banco de la República’s macroeconomic forecasting models is the long-term rate of growth of the economy. In technical terms, this is known as steady-state growth, defned as the growth rate of the economy in the absence of new shocks, also understood as the reference…

Inflation increased more than the Bank anticipated during the second quarter of the year. However, with a cautious monetary policy and no significant increases in labor costs, prices are projected to rise at a slower pace, closer to the 3% target, in 2026 and 2027.

During 2023, Colombian firms that turned to international financing sources faced interest rate increases and an appreciation of the peso against the dollar of 21.5%.1 Despite the positive effect on firms’ balance sheets due to the appreciation of the local currency, the presence of exchange…

The cohort of credits that are originated in a particular period (generally one month) and are related to each other as they have been originated by credit institutions (CIs) under particular allocation conditions, risk appetite of the institutions, and economic situation1 is called vintage.

Credit institutions (CIs) are exposed to credit risk, which can be understood as the possibility of incurring losses arising from a debtor or counterparty defaulting on its obligations. To mitigate this risk, CIs must constitute provisions based on the balance of loan disbursements loan…

Between September 2024 and March 2025, the global economy was characterized by high uncertainty and increased volatility in financial markets. In Colombia, the economy continued to show signs of recovery and inflation kept declining, although fiscal risks increased.

In 2024, the Colombian economy began a comeback in its economic activity recovery process, recording an annual growth rate of 1.7%, surpassing the 0.6% seen in 2023. Furthermore, headline annual inflation continued its convergence to the target, concluding 2024 at 5.2%, amid moderated yearly…

In March, inflation decreased - although less than anticipated - and remains above the 3% target. Over the next two years, it is expected that inflation will continue to decline, converging gradually toward the target.

Following the macroeconomic shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and the disruptions caused by the National Strike of 2021, the Colombian economy exhibited a notable recovery in 2022, with a real GDP increase of 7.3% and economic activity levels 10.4% above those recorded in 2019. This achievement…

Reserve requirements are an economic policy instrument that has historically played an important role in the fulfillment of the central bank’s mission worldwide. This requirement, set by the monetary authority of each country, mandates that banks and other credit institutions (CIs) to maintain a…

As part of the inflation-targeting framework governing monetary policy in Colombia, Banco de la República uses the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) as an instrument. By changing the MPR, Banrep induces variations in market interest rates at different terms and in asset prices, thereby…