The dynamics of the primary markets in which the financial system participates (e.g., credit, deposits, and fund management, among others) are intricately connected to the performance of the household sector, given its significant role in each of these areas. This report is created considering…
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The Colombian real estate market is experiencing a recovery in demand that contrasts with lagging supply, amid tighter financial conditions and localized risks to the sector's stability. In 2025, the Colombian economy grew by 2.6%, while the construction sector’s GDP contracted by 2.8% year-on-…
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This Special Financial Stability Report updates and expands the analysis of the performance of the loan portfolio and credit risk of credit institutions presented in the…
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Inflation continued to rise in the first months of the year and moved further away from its target, driven by higher labor costs, strong domestic demand, and disruptions in the production of some goods. Additional increases in inflation are expected throughout the year; however, monetary…
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Exposure of financial intermediaries to an environment of tighter local financial conditions:
- Publicación |Macroeconomic EnvironmentGlobal economy in 2025 was marked by an environment of high political and trade uncertainty, driven by the imposition of new tariffs by the United States.However, partial trade agreements between the US and other major economies were reached over the course of the year,…
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Este recuadro analiza cómo un aumento importante del salario mínimo puede afectar la inflación. El ejercicio considera un escenario en el cual dicho incremento se ubica por encima de la inflación pasada y del crecimiento de la productividad laboral en 17,2 puntos porcentuales (pp), magnitud…
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Banco de la República, the Central Bank of Colombia, continuously reviews and updates the tools used for macroeconomic forecasting and monetary policy analysis. These tools include macroeconomic models, which enable the collective analysis of inflation and economic growth dynamics in the medium…
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This Box quantifies the potential effects of a real increase in the minimum wage on a set of macroeconomic variables when the increment exceeds the sum of inflation and labor productivity growth by 17.2 percentage points (pp), as the one established for 2026. The analysis is conducted by…
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In 2025, inflation stopped declining and remained above the 3% target. It is expected to rise to 6.3% in 2026 and then fall to 3.7% by December 2027, within a context of excess demand, solid economic growth, high employment levels, and increased labor costs in 2026.
- Publicación |Main Characteristics of Banco de la República’s Reserves Management PolicyReserves are invested in financial assets with high levels of safety and liquidity, characterized by a large secondary market.The percentage of reserves that remains available to cover immediate liquidity needs, known as…
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The presence of Colombian banks in Central America has been significant in recent decades. Exposure to the regions where Colombian banks operate can be classified as direct or indirect. Direct exposure refers to the relationship that Colombian banks keep with their subsidiaries…
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This Special Financial Stability Report updates and expands the analysis of the performance of the loan portfolio and credit risk of credit institutions presented in the…
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The presence of Colombian banks in Central America has been significant in recent decades. Exposure to the regions where Colombian banks operate can be classified as direct or indirect. Direct exposure refers to the relationship that Colombian banks keep with their subsidiaries, whose results…
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Between March and September 2025, global financial markets showed signs of recovery. However, uncertainty persists due to high global debt, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts.
- Publicación |Main characteristics of Banco de la República's reserves management policyReserves are invested in financial assets with high levels of safety and liquidity, characterized by a large secondary market.The percentage of reserves that remains available to cover immediate liquidity needs, called…
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Macroeconomic imbalances are understood as the deviations of key variables from their long-term equilibrium values. These imbalances can accumulate over time, often during economic boom periods, increasing an economy’s vulnerability to adverse shocks and preface economic contractions and…
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The dynamics of the primary markets in which the financial system participates (e.g., credit, deposits, and fund management, among others) are intricately connected to the performance of the household sector, given its significant role in each of these areas. This report is created considering…
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Prices increased more than expected during the third quarter of the year. However, inflation is still expected to decrease in 2026 and fall within the range of 2 % to 4 %, continuing to approach the 3 % target, but at a somewhat slower pace. It is estimated that inflation will be at 5.1…
- Publicación |Deterioration of the Local Fiscal Situation
A weaker fiscal position can increase the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks and limit the scope for policy responses. This vulnerability may translate into higher risks for the financial system.
