During January and March 2026, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) increased the monetary policy interest rate from 9.25% to 11.25% (Graph B1.1). The pace of this increase was faster than that of typical benchmark-rate adjustments. It was adopted in a context where many…
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Inflation continued to rise in the first months of the year and moved further away from its target, driven by higher labor costs, strong domestic demand, and disruptions in the production of some goods. Additional increases in inflation are expected throughout the year; however, monetary…
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In recent discussions of Colombia’s macroeconomic environment, relatively little attention has been paid to the changing relationship between Banco de la República’s (Banrep) monetary policy rate and market interest rates. Such discussions often assume that Banrep’s policy rate is the sole or at…
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Financial conditions reflect the state of financial factors that, through various channels (e.g., leverage), influence the current and future evolution of key economic variables (Hatzius et al., 2010). Accordingly, the Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Colombia is constructed to synthesize…
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In 2025, the Colombian economy continued on its path of recovery, with economic activity registering an annual growth of 2.6%, surpassing the 1.5% observed in 2024. In turn, annual headline inflation converged more slowly toward the target, ending 2025 at 5.1%, close to the 5.2% recorded at the…
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In recent decades, Earth’s average temperature has steadily increased, with the average over the past three years surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold set by the 2016 Paris Agreement1 (Graph B2.1). The Agreement states that higher levels of global warming would substantially raise the risks of…
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The dynamics of the primary markets in which the financial system participates (e.g., credit, deposits, and fund management, among others) are intricately connected to the performance of the household sector, given its significant role in each of these areas. This report is created considering…
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The Colombian real estate market is experiencing a recovery in demand that contrasts with lagging supply, amid tighter financial conditions and localized risks to the sector's stability. In 2025, the Colombian economy grew by 2.6%, while the construction sector’s GDP contracted by 2.8% year-on-…
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This Special Financial Stability Report updates and expands the analysis of the performance of the loan portfolio and credit risk of credit institutions presented in the…
- Publicación |Macroeconomic EnvironmentGlobal economy in 2025 was marked by an environment of high political and trade uncertainty, driven by the imposition of new tariffs by the United States.However, partial trade agreements between the US and other major economies were reached over the course of the year,…
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Exposure of financial intermediaries to an environment of tighter local financial conditions:
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Este recuadro analiza cómo un aumento importante del salario mínimo puede afectar la inflación. El ejercicio considera un escenario en el cual dicho incremento se ubica por encima de la inflación pasada y del crecimiento de la productividad laboral en 17,2 puntos porcentuales (pp), magnitud…
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Banco de la República, the Central Bank of Colombia, continuously reviews and updates the tools used for macroeconomic forecasting and monetary policy analysis. These tools include macroeconomic models, which enable the collective analysis of inflation and economic growth dynamics in the medium…
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This Box quantifies the potential effects of a real increase in the minimum wage on a set of macroeconomic variables when the increment exceeds the sum of inflation and labor productivity growth by 17.2 percentage points (pp), as the one established for 2026. The analysis is conducted by…
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In 2025, inflation stopped declining and remained above the 3% target. It is expected to rise to 6.3% in 2026 and then fall to 3.7% by December 2027, within a context of excess demand, solid economic growth, high employment levels, and increased labor costs in 2026.
- Publicación |Main Characteristics of Banco de la República’s Reserves Management PolicyReserves are invested in financial assets with high levels of safety and liquidity, characterized by a large secondary market.The percentage of reserves that remains available to cover immediate liquidity needs, known as…
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This Special Financial Stability Report updates and expands the analysis of the performance of the loan portfolio and credit risk of credit institutions presented in the…
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The presence of Colombian banks in Central America has been significant in recent decades. Exposure to the regions where Colombian banks operate can be classified as direct or indirect. Direct exposure refers to the relationship that Colombian banks keep with their subsidiaries, whose results…
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The presence of Colombian banks in Central America has been significant in recent decades. Exposure to the regions where Colombian banks operate can be classified as direct or indirect. Direct exposure refers to the relationship that Colombian banks keep with their subsidiaries…
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Between March and September 2025, global financial markets showed signs of recovery. However, uncertainty persists due to high global debt, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts.






















