Global inflation and interest rates remained elevated amid a more cautious stance by central banks.Inflation rebounded in major developed economies and remained above their central banks’ targets.Markets revised their interest rate expectations upward.Capital flows to emerging economies weakened…
Bogotá, Colombia
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The dynamics of the primary markets in which the financial system participates (e.g., credit, deposits, and fund management, among others) are intricately connected to the performance of the household sector, given its significant role in each of these areas. This report is created considering…
- Publicación |Deteriorations in public debt and in the expected fiscal deficit generate statistically significant increases in the cyclical component of the long-term real interest rate and a steepening of the yield curve.
- Publicación |In contexts of sustained depreciation, firms face a trade-off between investing and engaging in financial hedging, suggesting the need for policies that improve the liquidity and accessibility of the derivatives market to reduce these costs and foster investment.
- Publicación |Since the late 1970s, the Colombian economy has experienced nine slowdown episodes. Three coincided with classical GDP recessions. Five of the remaining six received little attention in the literature, despite showing clear signs of economic weakening.
- Publicación |Despite the growth of modern services, Colombia’s foreign trade remains concentrated in traditional services. This poses challenges for diversifying the export basket and for promoting more differentiated, higher-technology services that can be more easily integrated into global value chains.
- Publicación |Banco de la República has a highly effective instrument in the policy rate to achieve its objectives. However, uncertainty reduces that effectiveness; therefore, when uncertainty is higher, the Bank needs to act more forcefully to achieve the same objective.
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Inflation continued to rise in the first months of the year and moved further away from its target, driven by higher labor costs, strong domestic demand, and disruptions in the production of some goods. Additional increases in inflation are expected throughout the year; however, monetary…
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Exposure of financial intermediaries to an environment of tighter local financial conditions:
- Publicación |Macroeconomic EnvironmentGlobal economy in 2025 was marked by an environment of high political and trade uncertainty, driven by the imposition of new tariffs by the United States.However, partial trade agreements between the US and other major economies were reached over the course of the year,…
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Colombia is undergoing a demographic transformation characterized by a marked decline in fertility rates and a sustained increase in life expectancy. Within a few decades, the country has shifted from having a predominantly young population to facing a rapid ageing…
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Este recuadro analiza cómo un aumento importante del salario mínimo puede afectar la inflación. El ejercicio considera un escenario en el cual dicho incremento se ubica por encima de la inflación pasada y del crecimiento de la productividad laboral en 17,2 puntos porcentuales (pp), magnitud…
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Real retail sales grew in the region and surpassed the national average, although they slowed down. Higher income, the appreciation of the Colombian peso, and improved credit conditions boosted the consumption of durable goods. Sales of food and beverages led this positive performance, followed…
- Publicación |Through two empirical applications using economic data from the United States and Colombia, we illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology, providing not only accurate point estimates for the dating of turning points, but also enabling us to construct confidence intervals around these estimates.
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Presentation made at the Banco de la República on March 18, 2026
- Publicación |Without an equitable redistribution of unpaid care work, it will not be possible to close gender gaps in Colombia.
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This document presents, from both a conceptual and applied perspective, the framework of the System of National Accounts (SNA) as the reference for analyzing a country's economic structure, evolution, and performance. It sets out the integrated logic of the system, in…
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Banco de la República, the Central Bank of Colombia, continuously reviews and updates the tools used for macroeconomic forecasting and monetary policy analysis. These tools include macroeconomic models, which enable the collective analysis of inflation and economic growth dynamics in the medium…
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This Box quantifies the potential effects of a real increase in the minimum wage on a set of macroeconomic variables when the increment exceeds the sum of inflation and labor productivity growth by 17.2 percentage points (pp), as the one established for 2026. The analysis is conducted by…
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In 2025, inflation stopped declining and remained above the 3% target. It is expected to rise to 6.3% in 2026 and then fall to 3.7% by December 2027, within a context of excess demand, solid economic growth, high employment levels, and increased labor costs in 2026.
