Typically, when forecasting inflation rates, there are a variety of individual models and a combination of several of these models. We implement a Bayesian shrinkage combination methodology to include information that is not captured by the individual models using expert forecasts as prior…
Working Papers on Economics
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This document presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rule of thumb (Non-Ricardian) agents and both nominal price and wage rigidities. The model follows closely that of Galí et al. (2004) and expands it to include a second way form of heterogeneity (besides the Non-Ricardian…
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This paper examines the long-term trends observed in the standard of living of the Colombian population during the past one hundred years, with special attention on health. We construct a historical index of human development for Colombia (HIHDC) for the 19th and 20th centuries by gender. We…
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Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva. Los autores son los únicos responsables por errores de contenido.
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El Borrador de Economía titulado ‘Efectos asimétricos de choques de términos de intercambio sobre la inversión transable y no transable: El caso colombiano’, analiza las consecuencias para Colombia del fuerte choque de términos de intercambio que ha enfrentado el país desde mediados del 2014,…
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Using a stylized model in which output is measured with error, we derive the optimal policy response to the demand shock signal and to changes in the measurement error volatility from two different perspectives: the minimization of the expected loss (from which we derive the ‘standard’ policy)…
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This paper identifies Okun´s law in Colombia between 1984 and 2016 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as there is evidence of a long-term relationship between the unemployment rate and the GDP. Results suggest that after a one percent increase in GDP, the unemployment rate is reduced…
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After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the…
- Publicación |Florez-Jimenez and Parra-Polania (2016) show that unconditional forward guidance (FG) performs poorly except in the most extreme zero lower-bound (ZLB) events and that for any ZLB situation it is better to resort to state-dependent (threshold-based) FG. The model of that paper is solved under the…
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When managing international reserves, central banks generally face the problem of determining what their optimum or adequate level is. A critical review of some methodologies for calculating the optimum amount of reserves is presented in this document.
- Publicación |In this paper we describe the relationship between the quality of goods and inputs of Colombian manufacturing firms and the income level of their export markets. We show that there is a positive correlation between measures of product and input quality and measures of per capita income of export…
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The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. - Publicación |
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. - Publicación |
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. - Publicación |
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. - Publicación |
RESUMEN NO TÉCNICO
‘Retornos de la capacitación para el trabajo en Colombia: evidencia basada en la Encuesta Social Longitudinal’
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We study connectedness and causality between oil prices and exchange rates dynamically. Using data on the WTI and exchange rate returns for six countries in which oil production is a major production activity, we show that oil prices are net receptors of spillovers from excahnge rate markets.…
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We carry out a reading analysis that consists of two elements. First, we observe the coherence between monetary policy actions and press releases. In this case, we found that inflation and growth are significant themes in the adoption of the policy measures between September 2004 and March 2016…
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In complex systems, homogeneity (i.e. lack of diversity) has been documented as a source of fragility. Likewise, financial sector’s homogeneity has been documented as a contributing factor for systemic risk. We assess homogeneity in the Colombian case by measuring how similar banks are regarding…
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Mergers of firms producing complementary products have ambiguous effects on consumer welfare. Consumers benefit if the firm, motivated by the internalized profits created by the complementarity, lowers prices. Consumers are hurt if the firm uses bundles to exert price discrimination, making…
