Working Papers on Economics
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- Publicación |The paper proposes an innovative, systematic, and reproducible framework for inflation forecasting using LLMs, demonstrating that the progressive incorporation of macroeconomic information, economic structure, and contemporaneous shocks can generate projections that are more dynamic and more…
- Publicación |Understanding labour market dynamics requires far more than a snapshot at a single point in time. This study shows that stability and continuity in formal employment are associated not only with higher earnings, but also with more predictable and less volatile earnings trajectories. These findings…
- Publicación |Approach
In 2013, through Law 1636, Colombia established the Unemployment Protection Mechanism (Mecanismo de Protección al Cesante, MPC) to mitigate the economic effects of job loss and facilitate re-employment. The program provides, for up to six months, health insurance…
- Publicación |Does the effectiveness of monetary policy depend solely on the decisions of the central bank? This paper examines how sovereign risk also influences the transmission of monetary policy actions. The findings show that greater fiscal stress reduces the central bank’s stabilization capacity and…
- Publicación |By analyzing nearly two decades of monetary policy minutes using natural language processing tools, this study shows that these documents effectively explain monetary policy decisions, insofar as they shed light on the internal balance of risks assessed by the Board of Directors. This balance is…
- Publicación |Is economic activity solely responsible for increases in inflation and for deviations from the inflation target? Through the implementation of a hemispheric neural network, this paper shows that inflation expectations, supply-side changes, exchange rate volatility, price indexation, and wage…
- Publicación |What were the effects of the 2012 tax reform on Colombia’s labor market? This article shows that reducing taxes associated with labor hiring increased formal employment, reduced informality, and lowered the unemployment rate. These findings provide valuable input for the design of public policies…
- Publicación |How are oil prices related to economic growth and monetary policy? Drawing on a broad sample of 31 emerging economies analyzed over the same period, this paper finds that, in the face of oil price fluctuations, both oil-importing and oil-exporting emerging economies that operate under an inflation…
- Publicación |The same monetary policy rate decision does not have uniform effects across regions of the country. Regions experiencing larger declines in inflation also tend to exhibit more pronounced slowdowns in economic activity and employment. This finding suggests that regional heterogeneity primarily…
- Publicación |More data, greater confidence: the LICA rate seeks to provide a more accurate measure of the overnight cost of money in Colombia by using a larger number of actual market transactions. As a result, it offers a more representative indicator, better reflecting liquidity conditions in the economy.
- Publicación |How can climate change affect food prices? This paper examines how extreme changes in precipitation and temperature have differentiated effects on wholesale food prices in Colombia. The results show that average climatic conditions across the country explain most of the observed price fluctuations.…
- Publicación |Gender gaps in university education do not originate in higher education institutions themselves; rather, they reflect accumulated inequalities and selection processes that occur earlier in the educational trajectory.
Working papers economics - Youth out of school and out of work: Dynamic and determinants in Colombia
Publicación |In Colombia, one in every five young people between the ages of 15 and 24 is neither studying nor working; these individuals are known as NEETs (Not in Education, Employment, or Training). This paper contributes to the analysis of NEET status in Colombia by adopting a cohort perspective. Using this…- Publicación |When we observe an increase in labor formality associated with a higher level of economic development, is it because more people gain access to the formal sector, or because those already working remain longer in formal jobs? This study shows that labor formality rises with the level of development…
- Publicación |The combination of economic theory and neural networks makes it possible to capture complex relationships and enhance the understanding of real exchange rate misalignment in Colombia.
- Publicación |To obtain timely and reliable forecasts of Colombia’s current account, this paper proposes a methodology that makes it possible to assess a large number of alternative models simultaneously and select those with the strongest predictive performance and greatest economic coherence. The results…
- Publicación |The Housing Market Conditions Indicator (HMCI) provides a comprehensive and timely measure for monitoring developments in Colombia’s housing market and for complementing the analysis of the country’s economic cycle.
- Publicación |Approach
Motivated by the slow convergence of the classical nonparametric kernel density estimator commonly used in the literature to estimate density functions, this paper investigates more efficient estimators of the density function and its derivative for the marginal density…
- Publicación |Cross-subsidization is not merely a redistributive strategy, but a central mechanism that favors demand and generates substantial gains for both consumers and retailers, and regulations that restrict this mechanism may have unintended effects on welfare.
- Publicación |The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity across institutions of different sizes: smaller institutions significantly restricted their supply of loans with maturities longer than 108 months, reducing both loan amounts and the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. In contrast, larger institutions absorbed…
