Publications

The Global Financial Cycle (GFC) is a common movement of financial variables transmitted to emerging economies through various channels. During periods of GFC expansion, emerging economies tend to exhibit higher capital inflows, increased asset prices, and better conditions for accessing…

The objective of the study is to evaluate the main determinants of the Colombian gross portfolio inflows and outflows from non-resident and resident investors and to study the role of the interest rate of the domestic monetary policy. The conceptual framework is the standard portfolio…

The development of methodologies that enable the diagnosis of the current state and trend of economic activity is particularly important to improve the decision-making process in economic policy. This paper proposes a new weekly indicator of economic activity for Colombia, covering the…

(Bogotá D.C., Cundinamarca)

We revisit an old question but with a new identification strategy, namely the difference in exchange rate effects between announced (“vocal”) and secret (“dirty”) foreign exchange intervention. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we exploit a rule-based intervention mechanism…

The dynamics of the main markets in which the financial system participates (e.g., credit, deposits, and fund management, among others) are closely linked to the behavior of the household sector, given its preponderant role in each of them. Considering the above and the high growth in credit for…

This report analyzes the credit risk exposure and performance of credit institutions as of September 2022. In line with the sustained economic recovery observed so far this year, commercial loans, consumer loans, and microcredits show high growth rates above their historical levels. In turn, the…

The purpose of this report is to measure the volatility transmission among the stock and the public and private debt markets to identify whether a market was a generator or receiver of volatility at a given point in time. Subsequently, the three markets’ overnight value-at-risk (VaR) is…

In a macroeconomic context of high inflation and high interest rates, demand for new housing units has weakened while supply has shown slight signs of recovery. This has reduced the pressures on new housing prices that have been reported in previous editions of this report. When considering a…

A relevant part of the liquidity management of financial institutions in Colombia is made through transactions in the money market, both collateralized and uncollateralized. The collateralized market includes transactions such as repo, simultaneous, temporary transfer of securities (TTV in…

Monitoring the macroeconomic and financial outlook of Central American economies has become increasingly important with the expansion of Colombian banks in these countries in recent years, particularly in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua. The macroeconomic…

This report analyzes the level of concentration in the credit and deposit markets, given the importance of this aspect in credit and liquidity risks. Likewise, it presents an additional analysis to determine the degree of competition among financial intermediaries in the credit market..

Assessing the composition of sovereign debt holders is important because investors’ behavior varies according to distinctive  components, including shareholders’ preferences, regulatory constraints, and profitability mandates. To study this issue, we examine the determinants of…

Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) models suggest many variables as potential drivers of equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER). This gives rise to model uncertainty issues, as ERER depends and varies, often drastically, on a particular set of chosen variables. We address this…

Price dispersion is a prevalent feature even of markets where, arguably, homogeneous good are traded. At the heart of the causes of price dispersion lie the firms’ strategic interactions with their customers and rivals. Consumers’ eagerness and ability to search for lower prices tends…

One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study…

Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) is the leading institution in Latin America according to the “10% Institutions and Economists in the Field of Macroeconomics” list of Research Papers in Economics (RePEc), an initiative that seeks to promote the dissemination of research in…

This paper estimates the effect of financial development on the transmission of monetary policy. To do so, the paper employs a panel data set containing financial development indicators, policy rates, lending rates, and deposit rates for 43 countries for the period 2000-2019 and…

Colombia is particularly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather fluctuations. In this context, this study explores how the adverse weather events linked to ENSO affect the inflation expectations in Colombia and how to incorporate these second-round effects into a…

We introduce a methodology for generating alerts of potential anti-competitive practices in the Colombian wholesale electricity market.