Publications

Using a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for 2019, shocks of various characteristics to the minimum wage are simulated to establish the effects on the nation's fiscal accounts. This document is a pioneer in that analysis. The evidence suggests adverse effects of…

We provide evidence of the negative effect of the minimum wage on labor market flows, such as job creation, job destruction, hiring, and separations in Colombia. Depicting firms' minimum wage (MW) compliance cost, we find evidence of an adverse effect of increases on MW compliance cost…

In this paper, we examine the financial and real effects of macroprudential policies with a new identifying strategy that exploits borrower-specific provisioning levels for each bank. Locally, we compare similar firms just below and above regulatory thresholds…

We investigate the effects of a change in the regulation of the spot market for electricity in Colombia that took place in 2009. Specifically, the regulation switched from an auction mechanism with simple bids to one with complex bids to allow generators to separately bid on variable…

Banks in emerging market economies rely on cross-border interbank lending to financing firms in the real sector. By matching cross-border bank-to-bank loan level data with domestic bank-to-firm loan level data, and firm-level data, this paper shows that sudden yield reversal observed…

This paper assesses whether the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated automation in developing countries. We studied the case of Colombia, a country with low R&D and productivity and with high labor informality and unemployment. We estimated event-study models to assess the differential…

We study the impact of natural resource royalties on educational outcomes in Colombia. We analyze a reform enacted in 2012 that made the distribution of these royalties more equitable. Before the reform, most royalties were assigned to the regions where the natural resources…

Numerous studies exist about exports at the firm level in Colombia, but only a few exist about the market for imports and the importing firms. This study seeks to fill that gap by looking at the dynamics of imports, the market for imports and the role of importing firms in Colombia…

One of the lessons we learned from the 2008 financial crisis was the importance of monitoring the systemic risk in the stability of financial systems. In this regard, lines of research have been developed with the aim to provide reliable and timely metrics on this risk, taking as much…

(Bogotá D.C., Cundinamarca)

Every two years, Banco de la República’s (the Central Bank of Colombia) Office for Industrial and Treasury Affairs, with the methodological consultancy of the Office for Economic Studies, applies the national survey on the provision of banknotes and coins and payment instruments (Epbmip in…

A relevant part of the liquidity management of financial institutions in Colombia is made through transactions in the money market, both collateralized and uncollateralized. The collateralized market includes transactions such as repo, simultaneous, temporary transfer of securities (TTV in…

This paper studies the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on corporate credit in Colombia. We first exploit the geographic and temporal variation in the disease spread to estimate the effect of local exposure to the virus on credit. Our estimates indicate that neither local exposure to the…

As of May 2022, household surveys and administrative records show a dynamic labor market in which employment continues to grow rapidly. Overall, employment levels are similar to or higher than those recorded before the Covid-19 Pandemic. Employment is growing faster in the cities, and the…

This report analyzes the credit risk exposure and performance of credit institutions as of March 2022. With the recovery of economic activity, portfolio quality indicators continued to improve. The loan portfolio also grew at an accelerated rate. The Financial Stability Report for the first half…

We investigate whether central banks are able to attract or redirect capital flows, by bringing together the entire empirical literature into the first quantitative meta-analysis on the subject. We dissect policy effects by the type of flow and by the origin of the monetary shock.…

The purpose of this report is to measure the volatility transmission among the stock and the public and private debt markets to identify whether a market was a generator or receiver of volatility at a given point in time. Subsequently, the three markets’ overnight value-at-risk (VaR) is…

Financial inclusion is the process of integrating financial services into the daily economic activities of the population, which can contribute to economic growth to the extent that it reduces financing and transaction costs and offers secure and efficient management of resources, both for…

This special report analyzes the combined dynamics of the real estate market in Colombia and its credit portfolio with the purpose of identifying potential sources of risk that could affect economic and financial stability. In particular, the behavior of variables associated with the sector, its…

According to the World Migration Report 2020, the number of international migrants increased from 84 million in 1970 to 272 million in 2019, accounting for 3.5% of the world’s population. This paper investigates the aggregated effect of emigration on the tax revenue of sending…