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Abstract: We measure the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary easing and tightening, during booms and recessions, using a novel nonlinear Proxy-SVAR approach. We find evidence of significant nonlinearities for the U.S. economy (1973:M1 - 2019:M6): stimulating economic activity…
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Resumen: The main goal of this work is to propose a general methodology to create a coincident index for the economy of a given country or region based on linear combinations of dynamic common factors, and to validate it on simulated scenarios and on a case study for Colombia.
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Abstract: In this paper, we develop a scalable micro-macro modeling framework that integrates linear multivariate time series models with nonlinear panel models to investigate to what extent oil supply shocks affect household inflation expectations in the Euro area in a heterogeneous and nonlinear…
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Abstract: We study the optimal design of disinflation after the creation of a newly independent central bank with limited credibility.
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Abstract: La eficacia y la eficiencia de la política monetaria se evalúan para la economía colombiana en el período 2003‑2024 a partir del análisis estadístico y la inferencia en un modelo econométrico de rezagos distribuidos.
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Abstract: La reconfiguración de las cadenas globales de valor ha impulsado estrategias de relocalización buscando una mayor resiliencia a cambios en el entorno internacional pese a sus inherentes desafíos en términos de costos y competitividad. Este estudio evalúa los potenciales beneficios…
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Abstract: Desentrañamos empíricamente los efectos de corto y mediano plazo de los movimientos del tipo de cambio sobre la inversión de las empresas no financieras en Colombia entre 2005 y 2019. Encontramos que una depreciación estructural del peso afecta negativamente la inversión a través de un…
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Abstract: Workers move frequently between formal and informal jobs, yet the motives behind these transitions remain debated.
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Abstract: This paper examines the causal effects of inflation targeting on inflation levels using the synthetic control method. It provides a comprehensive analysis by estimating the impact of inflation targeting on the consumer price index for each country that adopted the policy since its…
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Abstract: Esta investigación evalúa la implementación de un programa de crédito-beca para estudiantes económicamente desfavorecidos con bajo desempeño académico sobre variables de resultado de la educación superior. Utilizando un diseño de regresión discontinua con datos de egresados de grado 11…
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Abstract: We show that a suitable extension of the neoclassical growth model to include endogenous fertility can account for four robust patterns in international data: (i) population size is strongly positively correlated with effective land; (ii) per capita income is largely uncorrelated with…
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Martino Pelli: is an Associate Professor and the Chair of the Department of Economics at the Université de Sherbrooke, a Research Fellow at CIREQ and the Lead Researcher in Sustainable Development at CIRANO. His areas of expertise are Development Economics and Resource and Environmental Economics.…
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Abstract: This paper examines the effects of African ethnic institutions on economic development in the Americas through the lens of the Colombian Pacific lowlands. We trace the African origins of Afro-Colombians by linking a wealth of ethnographical sources with contemporary micro-level data on…
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Abstract: The proliferation of automation, fueled by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), including Generative AI (GAI), is revolutionizing various sectors by optimizing workflows, enhancing profitability, and minimizing repetitive tasks performed by workers. While this revolution…
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Abstract: We study how digital payments affect consumer credit through the information they generate. Using Brazilian credit registry and transaction-level data on Pix, credit and debit cards, we show that Pix users are more likely to receive cards, higher limits, and lower interest rates from the…
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Seminario de Microeconomía Aplicada - Cash Transfers and Formal Labor Markets : Evidence from BrazilJoana Silva: a Senior Economist at the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank.
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Abstract: Concerns about ownership consolidation and sectoral reallocation resulting from the privatization and trade of water are predominant barriers that inhibit the adoption of water markets. However, systematic empirical evaluation of these processes is lacking. We study trends in…
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Abstract: This paper examines the effect of female empowerment in media on female labor market outcomes using Latin American telenovelas. Using generative AI, He construct a Female Empowerment Index (FEI) for these TV shows from 1960 to 2024. he show that FEI exposure during the…
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