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Abstract: Private credit, often associated with unsecured lending, has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. We use U.S. loan-level data to show that total outstanding amounts of secured direct loans now surpass unsecured direct loans. Loans are more likely to be secured when informational…
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The issue of economic inequality began to receive increased attention after the global financial crisis. During that period, the increase in unemployment, the heterogeneous evolution of house and stock prices, and the fall in interest rates all affected households in very different ways.
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Abstract: Some studies have expressed concern that the Gaussian-inverse Wishart–Haar prior typically employed in estimating sign-identified VAR models may be unintentionally informative about the prior for the structural responses. We discuss what features to look for in this prior in the absence…
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Abstract: Since 2018, tariffs have resurged as a tool for protecting domestic economies, particularly in the US. This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare impacts of various tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network. The…
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Abstract: We develop a novel firm-level credit condition sentiment index using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and earnings calls. We first document that our credit condition sentiment index is a sensible measure by demonstrating it is positively correlated with the commonly used firm-…
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Abstract: We develop a New Keynesian model with financial frictions to study how corporate capital structure shapes static and dynamic monetary policy tradeoffs through the supply side. Ex post, when corporate leverage is high, monetary tightening contracts both demand and supply. As a result, the…
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Abstract: We measure the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary easing and tightening, during booms and recessions, using a novel nonlinear Proxy-SVAR approach. We find evidence of significant nonlinearities for the U.S. economy (1973:M1 - 2019:M6): stimulating economic activity…
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Abstract: In this paper, we develop a scalable micro-macro modeling framework that integrates linear multivariate time series models with nonlinear panel models to investigate to what extent oil supply shocks affect household inflation expectations in the Euro area in a heterogeneous and nonlinear…
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Abstract: La eficacia y la eficiencia de la política monetaria se evalúan para la economía colombiana en el período 2003‑2024 a partir del análisis estadístico y la inferencia en un modelo econométrico de rezagos distribuidos.
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Abstract: La reconfiguración de las cadenas globales de valor ha impulsado estrategias de relocalización buscando una mayor resiliencia a cambios en el entorno internacional pese a sus inherentes desafíos en términos de costos y competitividad. Este estudio evalúa los potenciales beneficios…
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Abstract: Desentrañamos empíricamente los efectos de corto y mediano plazo de los movimientos del tipo de cambio sobre la inversión de las empresas no financieras en Colombia entre 2005 y 2019. Encontramos que una depreciación estructural del peso afecta negativamente la inversión a través de un…
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