Call for papers. Revisiting Monetary Policymaking Under Uncertainty: The 25th Anniversary of the Central Bank Modeling Workshop

Convocatorias

KEY DATES:

- We invite authors to submit completed papers (preferred) or extended abstracts in pdf format to [email protected]  by July 1, 2022.

- Authors of accepted papers will be informed by August 12,  2022.

- 25th CBMMW November  9,10 and 11, 2022.

Hard to believe it has been 25 years since the first central bank modeling workshop. The title of the first workshop was “Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty”.  It was the time of the inflation-targeting pioneers.  In addition, at the beginning of 1990s, the Bank of Canada developed solution methods for solving a class of useful nonlinear models with plausible representations of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The methods were incorporated in the Bank’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), with help from the Canadians, then implemented this approach to support  its novel Inflation Targeting regime, launching what it is known today as the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). Publicly-disclosed forecasts used to inform and explain decisions taken in pursuit of clear policy targets, became the gold standard for monetary policy.

This year, the keynotes and panels at the workshop will review the history of macroeconomic modeling as a tool for monetary policymaking. The focus will be on extracting lessons from that history. One line of enquiry will concern adaptations of FPAS-style analytical frameworks that may be needed given what The Economist has recently described as the essence of the new normal: persistent large uncertainty.

Is it time for FPAS Mark II? Another line of enquiry will concern whether FPAS-style analytical frameworks can usefully be deployed within the fields of macroprudential and fiscal policymaking. Conference panels will discuss both these questions.

Keynote speakers:

The organizing committee invites submissions of both theoretical and empirical work on the following topics:

  • Uncertainty and macroeconomic policy analysis
  • Uncertainty about potential levels and steady-state variables (“bar” variables)
  • Policy implications of heterogeneity in macroeconomic models
  • Macroeconomic policy and capacity constraints
  • Endogenous policy credibility
  • Endogenous country risk premium / Risk premium dynamics and modeling
  • Climate change and macroeconomic modeling
  • New monetary policy frameworks (dual mandates, average inflation targeting, etc.)
  • Analytical frameworks to support fiscal policy analysis
  • Fiscal frameworks and its interactions with monetary policy
  • Models of commodity markets / Commodities and terms-of-trade shocks
  • Developments in monetary policy transparency and central bank communications
  • Analytical frameworks to support price and financial stability objectives
  • Lessons learned from the COVID-19 and their policy implications
  • Micro data, surveys and big data to support macroeconomic policy decisions

Contact information and paper submissions:

[email protected]

Hosted by:

The Better Policy Project and Banco de la República - Colombia (Central Bank of Colombia).