Publications OLD

The burden of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) is expected to increase due to the aging of the population and risk factors from unhealthy lifestyle habits. This paper aims to analyze how the evolution of NCDs (e.g., Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular Disease, Chronic Respiratory Disease,…

This study evaluates the financing mechanisms of the healthcare system, differentiating between resources of fiscal, parafiscal, and other origins used primarily to cover the costs of the contributory and subsidized health regimes. In recent years, the sector has faced financial and…

In this paper, we analyze the tail-dependence structure of credit default swaps (CDS) and the global financial cycle for a group of eleven emerging markets. Using a Copula-CoVaR model, we provide evidence that there is a significant taildependence between variables related with the…

We provide an overview of the primary structural features of the labor market in Colombia and survey the margins of adjustment of the market during the pandemic. Given the decline of real wages amid the post-pandemic inflationary surge, mainly due to the formal wage rigidity in the…

The business cycle is the cycle in the output gap and also in a stationary measure of trend output. Both the output gap and trend output are driven by joint trend-cycle shocks. The model is a univariate trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis in trend output that enables the…

In this paper we extend the economic model used in Parra et al. (2020) to incorporate two significant groups that were not included in the original analysis: people who are retired with pension equivalent to the minimum wage and those who do not fulfill pension requirements and therefore…

We develop a methodology that recovers an estimate of the average stock of vacancies using the information on aggregated hires. We show that our prediction of the vacancy stock is unbiased, and it captures well the level and the dynamics of the United States job opening positions…

The growth of the Colombian economy in 2022 (7.5%) was considerably higher than that of its Latin American peers and more than doubled the world’s growth average. Such a vigorous expansion over a GDP that had already exceeded its pre-pandemic level, growing by 11.0% in 2021, was a…

I am very pleased to welcome you to Bogotá and to this 24th meeting of the Regional Financial Stability Group  , which has been organized on this opportunity by Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) together with the Central American Monetary Council .We are honored to host…

Assessing the effects of U.S. monetary policies on portfolio flows is important for policymakers as they could pose risks to the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy. This paper analyzes the effects of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) unconventional…

The objective of the study is to evaluate the main determinants of the Colombian gross portfolio inflows and outflows from non-resident and resident investors and to study the role of the interest rate of the domestic monetary policy. The conceptual framework is the standard portfolio…

The development of methodologies that enable the diagnosis of the current state and trend of economic activity is particularly important to improve the decision-making process in economic policy. This paper proposes a new weekly indicator of economic activity for Colombia, covering the…

(Bogotá D.C., Cundinamarca)

I must begin by saying something that you know very well. The policy interest rate of Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) has drastically increased over the past year and a half, completing an increase of 11 pp since the beginning of the current cycle of increases in September…

As of November 2022, the Colombian labor market has stabilized. This is due to the heterogeneous dynamics between the urban and rural domains. In the first domain, employment continues to grow, while in the second, there have been contractions in recent months. Job losses in the rural area are…

Assessing the composition of sovereign debt holders is important because investors’ behavior varies according to distinctive  components, including shareholders’ preferences, regulatory constraints, and profitability mandates. To study this issue, we examine the determinants of…

Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) models suggest many variables as potential drivers of equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER). This gives rise to model uncertainty issues, as ERER depends and varies, often drastically, on a particular set of chosen variables. We address this…

Price dispersion is a prevalent feature even of markets where, arguably, homogeneous good are traded. At the heart of the causes of price dispersion lie the firms’ strategic interactions with their customers and rivals. Consumers’ eagerness and ability to search for lower prices tends…

One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study…

Online Presentation delivered at the webinar held by the National Bank of Ukraine and the Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN): Session 1. Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting with Limited Monetary Policy Transmission.