Publications

Presentación del Informe de Política Monetaria realizada en Bogotá, a cargo de José Darío Uribe.

For central banks that have adopted an inflation targeting strategy, measuring and understanding inflation expectations are important tasks when designing monetary policy, because they influence the dynamics of price increases in a number of ways.

The macroeconomic consequences of the recent plunge in international oil prices pose a challenge to an inflation targeting strategy in small, open economies that export this commodity.

The Colombian peso depreciated 39.4% against the dollar between July 2014 and March 2015. During that period, the exchange rate rose from a monthly average value of COP 1,858 per dollar to COP 2,591.

The consolidated public sector (SPC by its acronym in Spanish) closed out 2014 with a deficit equal to 1.8% of GDP. However, the target was 1.6% of GDP, according to the Medium Term Fiscal Framework (MFMP by its acronym in Spanish) for that year.

This work uses readily accessible data about the stocks of unemployed workers, labor force and duration of unemployment to measure the job finding and separation rates for Colombia from 1984 to 2014. It also evaluates the relative contribution of these rates to the fluctuations of unemployment…

Since July last year and after several quarters of steady declines, the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI) for non-tradables, excluding food and regulated items (NT-EFR), tended to stabilize up to November 2014, then adopted a rising trend that became more…

The last fifteen years have seen a considerable increase in the outstanding external debt in the private sector. On the one hand, corporate external borrowing doubled, going from USD $11,334 million (m) in December 2000 to USD $25,005 m in June 2015.

This paper assesses the efficiency of crop and livestock production in Colombia by using a sample of 1,565 households. The study considers households located in different production systems which differ in geography, climate and soil types. These conditions affect technical efficiency and thus…

One of the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis was a generalized contraction in international trade. In the case of Colombia, export volume indexes and its annual growth rates declined between 2008 and 2009,.

The literature on the inflation targeting strategy1 highlights four channels for monetary policy pass-through: inflation expectations, the exchange rate, aggregate demand and credit. It is through these channels that changes in the central bank’s benchmark rate manage to…

Colombian industry has stagnated in the last four years, compared to the relatively favorable performance of the country’s economy as a whole.

In an ever more globalized world, capital flows emerge as a viable alternative for investors who are seeking higher yields and for economies that are short on savings and looking for resources to finance their current expenditure or investments.

Recent developments in inflation in Colombia (defined as the change in the consumer price index: CPI) were influenced by the simultaneous presence of two different shocks. On the one hand, there is a group of widespread and lasting shocks that affect a large number of…

Monetary policy in Colombia is governed by an inflation targeting scheme designed to keep the rate of inflation low and stable. For this reason, it is important to measure and understand how prices in the economy respond to fluctuations in the exchange rate, an effect …

Determinants of consumer credit are estimated by using information from a Credit Union located in Medellín-Colombia. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first investigation using this kind of data in Colombia. We find that life cycle-permanent income hypothesis (LC-PIH) related variables…

The external balance of non-factor services is a component of the balance of payments that does not receive a great deal of attention from market analysts.

In this study we construct volatility spillover indexes for some of the major stock market indexes in the world. We use a DCC-GARCH framework for modelling the multivariate relationships of volatility among markets. Extending the framework of Diebold and Yilmaz [2012] we compute spillover…

We study the interdependence between real commodity prices and world real GDP using long-term annual data since 1870, by performing two empirical exercises. First, we compute long-term and medium-term cycles and measure their degree of synchronization for different leads and lags. Second, we…