Box 3: How to explain the increase in inflation between July 2014 and June 2016 by looking at the different CPI components?A Lasting Shock to Oil Prices: Implications for Monetary Policy in General Equilibrium Models
Los análisis y pronósticos incluidos en este informe son producidos por el equipo técnico del Banco. Es la base principal sobre la cual se realiza la recomendación de política monetaria a la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República (JDBR) y por estas razones no refleja necesariamente la opinión de sus miembros.
The macroeconomic consequences of the recent plunge in international oil prices pose a challenge to an inflation targeting strategy in small, open economies that export this commodity. On the one hand, there would be a negative impact on economic activity, national revenue, and aggregate demand, as manifest in a lower rate of growth. On the other, we would see depreciation of the exchange rate and its upward effect on prices and inflation.
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