Statistical Annex - Governor´s Report. Published on January 18th, 2017

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This is the Statistical Annex of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy, and their implications for monetary policy decision-making. The Statistical Annex will be updated on a monthly basis.


 

 

 


 

 
MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
 
    Annual Growth Rate (%)
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP 3.1 2.0    2.7 2.5 1.2 1.3
Total Consumption 3.6 2.0    3.1 2.3 1.7 2.1
Gross Investment 1.2 -4.5    -3.8 -4.7 0.0 1.3
Manufacturing 1.7 3.0    4.3 5.5 0.3 -3.3
  Percentage of GDP
Trade Balance (FOB) -4.7 -3.5    -5.0 -2.8  -2.8 -2.6
Current Account -6.4 -4.4   -5.9  -3.8 -4.4 -3.5

Source: DANE, Banco de la República.

 

 


 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
 
        Billions of pesos
Annual Variation (%)
 July 2017  August 2017  September 2017   July 2017 August 2017 September 2017
MONETARY AGGREGATES  Monetary Base 78,052 78,773  79,364   1.79 1.04 1.02 
M1  94,467 93,628  93,307   1.72 1.01 1.04 
M2 418,156 416,699 414,831    5.63 1.05 1.05 
M3 455,912 453,112 452,180    6.03 1.05 1.05 
 CREDIT   ADJUSTED NET DEBT PORTFOLIO              
Legal Currency  374,269 374,571   378,159    5.90 1.06 1.06 
Foreign Currency 21,885 21,189   20,871   -5.48   0.95  0.96 
 Total  396,154 395,760 399,030     5.20 1.05  1.05

  

        Percentage
April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017
INTEREST RATES Intervention Interest Rate 1/ 6.50 6.25 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25
Overnight Interbank Reference Rate (IBR)  6.99 6.48 6.25 5.49 5.52 5.26
Interbank Interest Rate (TIB) 6.99 6.48 6.26 5.49 5.52 5.26
DEPOSIT RATES            
DTF  6.53 6.17 5.96 5.65 5.58 5.52
Fixed-term Deposit Certificate to 90 days 6.28 5.77 5.84 5.35 5.51 5.44
ACTIVE RATES            
Banco de la República´s Active Rate 2/  14.47 14.02 13.50 13.58 13.27 12.69
Total Active Rate 14.41 13.94 13.43 13.52 13.21 12.64
Consumer Loans  19.87 19.78  19.47 19.39 18.91 18.87
Ordinary Commercial Loans 13.71 13.37 12.89 12.64 12.27 12.04
Preferential Credit 10.65 10.09 9.75 9.47 9.14 8.77
Treasury Credit 11.26 10.68 10.57 10.26 9.47 9.17
Micro-credit (different from Leasing) 36.84 36.76 36.59 36.94 36.60 36.52
Construction 3/ 11.27 10.86 10.85 10.83 10.71 10.19
Housing Acquisition 3/ 12.38 12.36 12.02 11.57 11.29 11.01

 

        Percentage
April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017
CPI INFLATION Total 4.66 4.37 3.99 3.40 3.87 3.97
Food 2.49 2.09 1.37 0.20 1.69 2.22
Regulated 6.75 6.24 6.01 5.03 5.57 5.68
Tradables (excluding food and regulated items) 5.35 4.88 4.41 4.09 3.75 3.41
Non-tradables (excluding food and regulated items)  5.22 5.25 5.21 5.20 5.23 5.21

             
CORE INFLATION INDICATORS Excluding food  5.60 5.35 5.12 4.79 4.81 4.71
Excluding food and regulated items 5.28 5.09 4.87 4.72 4.59 4.44
Excluding primary food, public utilities, and fuel 5.37 5.29 5.07 4.88 4.56 4.31
CPI - Core 20 5.84 5.59 5.31 5.22 5.00 4.87

             

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 

 MONTHLY EXPECTATIONS SURVEY TO ANALYSTS            
To December 2017 4.39 4.45 4.37 4.28 4.16 4.18
To December 2018 3.50 3.57 3.54 3.52 3.57 3.58
FORWARD BREAK-EVEN INFLATION (FBEI)            
For 2017  5.01 5.25 5.03 4.88 4.61 4.57
For 2018 3.13 3.38 3.25 3.27 3.43 3.48

 

 
 EXTERNAL SECTOR

    April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017
TOTAL EXPORTS FOB (millions of US dollars) 2,605  3,400 2,788  3,067  3,073   3,283
Annual variation (%) 6.48  23.99  1.21  37.69  1.54  19.29 

             
TOTAL IMPORTS FOB (millions of US dollars) 3,846 3,571 3,610  3,585  4,001   3,557
Annual variation (%) 8.7  4.20  2.38  12.20  -0.42   -5.74

             
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE (COP per US dollar) Average 2,874 2,924 2,958 3,037 2,973 2,917 
End of the period 2,948 2,920 3,038 2,995 2,937 2,936 

             
REAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX (RER) Non-Traditional RER index (CPI) 122.00 124.42 125.56 130.18 128.57  127.07
Non-Traditional RER index (PPI) 120.62 122.65 124.09 127.6 125.6 124.95

             
NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (NIR) Millions of US dollars 46,936 47,153 47,234 47,531 47,569 47,514

 

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS 5/    April 2017 May 2017   June 2017  July 2017  August 2017 September 2017
NIR/M3 30.69 30.88 31.71  31.23 31.23 30.86
  2015 2016   Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
NIR/GDP 16.04 16.51   16.90 17.27  15.89 15.66 
NIR/(Current account deficit + current year debt amortization) 6/ 1.10 1.36   1.17 1.24  1.28 1.14 

 

NET DIRECT INVESTMENT 4/     Millions of US dollars
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia  11,732 13,687   4,703 3,715 2,515 2,625
Colombian Investment Abroad 4,218 4,516   969 897 716 1,275

Source: Banco de la República.


NOTAS:
1/ This is Banco de la República's benchmark intervention rate corresponding to the decision reached by the Board of Directors on said month, enforceable since the first working day after that session.
2/ Banco de la República's placement rate is calculated as the weighted average value of consumer, preferential, ordinary, and treasury credit rates. Because of the high rotation of treasury credit its weight is given by one fifth of its weekly disbursements.
3/ This corresponds to non-VIS weighted housing rates in UVR and pesos. 
4/ Corresponding to the information on the balance of payments.
5/ The indicators for the closing of each quarter are calculated with the data from the last four quarters.
6/ This includes long-term amortizations and the short-term debt balance from a year ealier. 

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