Statistical Annex - Governor´s Report. Published on January 18th, 2017

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This is the Statistical Annex of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy, and their implications for monetary policy decision-making. The Statistical Annex will be updated on a monthly basis.


 

 

 


 

 
 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
 
    Annual Growth Rate (%)
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP 3.1 2.0    2.7 2.5 1.2 1.3
Total Consumption 3.6 2.0    3.1 2.3 1.7 2.1
Gross Investment 1.2 -4.5    -3.8 -4.7 0.0 1.3
Manufacturing 1.7 3.0    4.3 5.5 0.3 -3.3
  Percentage of GDP
Trade Balance (FOB) -4.7 -3.5    -5.0 -2.8  -2.8 -2.6
Current Account -6.4 -4.4   -5.9  -3.8 -4.4 -3.5

Source: DANE, Banco de la República.

 

 


 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
 
       Billions of pesos
Annual Variation (%)
June 2017  July 2017  August 2017    June 2017 July 2017 August 2017
MONETARY AGGREGATES Monetary Base 78,098 78,052 78,773   0.73 1.79 1.04
M1  93,055 94,467 93,628   -0.46  1.72 1.01
M2 415,076 418,156 416,699   5.95 5.63 1.05
M3 452,547 455,912 453,112   6.22 6.03 1.05
 CREDIT ADJUSTED NET DEBT PORTFOLIO               
Legal Currency 373,986 374,269 374,571   6.84 5.90 1.06
Foreign Currency 22,307 21,885 21,189   -1.53  -5.48  0.95
Total 396,293 396,154 395,760   6.33 5.20 1.05

 

       Percentage
March 2017  April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017
INTEREST RATES Intervention Interest Rate 1/ 7.00 6.50 6.25 5.75 5.50 5.25
Overnight Interbank Reference Rate (IBR)  7.19 6.99 6.48 6.25 5.49 5.52
Interbank Interest Rate (TIB) 7.19 6.99 6.48 6.26 5.49 5.52
DEPOSIT RATES            
DTF  6.65 6.53 6.17 5.96 5.65 5.58
Fixed-term Deposit Certificate to 90 days 6.22 6.28 5.77 5.84 5.35 5.51
ACTIVE RATES             
Banco de la República´s Active Rate 2/  15.13 14.47 14.02 13.50 13.58 13.27
Total Active Rate 15.07 14.41 13.94 13.43 13.52 13.21
Consumer Loans  19.78  19.87 19.78  19.47 19.39 18.91
Ordinary Commercial Loans  13.84 13.71 13.37 12.89 12.64 12.27
Preferential Credit 11.22 10.65 10.09 9.75 9.47 9.14
Treasury Credit 11.96 11.26 10.68 10.57 10.26 9.47
Micro-credit (different from Leasing) 36.77 36.84 36.76 36.59 36.94 36.60
Construction 3/ 11.64 11.27 10.86 10.85 10.83 10.71
Housing Acquisition 3/ 12.42 12.38 12.36 12.02 11.57 11.29

 

       Percentage
March 2017  April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017
CPI INFLATION Total 4.69 4.66 4.37 3.99 3.40 3.87
Food 3.65 2.49 2.09 1.37 0.20 1.69
Regulated 4.05 6.75 6.24 6.01 5.03 5.57
Tradables (excluding food and regulated items) 5.59 5.35 4.88 4.41 4.09 3.75
Non-tradables (excluding food and regulated items)  5.33 5.22 5.25 5.21 5.20 5.23
               
CORE INFLATION INDICATORS Excluding food  5.13 5.60 5.35 5.12 4.79 4.81
Excluding food and regulated items 5.44 5.28 5.09 4.87 4.72 4.59
Excluding primary food, public utilities, and fuel 5.61 5.37 5.29 5.07 4.88 4.56
CPI - Core 20 6.01 5.84 5.59 5.31 5.22 5.00
               

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 

 MONTHLY EXPECTATIONS SURVEY TO ANALYSTS            
To december 2017  4.49 4.39 4.45 4.37 4.28 4.16
To december 2018  3.60 3.50 3.57 3.54 3.52 3.57
FORWARD BREAK-EVEN INFLATION (FBEI)            
For 2017  5.24 5.01 5.25 5.03 4.88 4.61
For 2018 3.28 3.13 3.38 3.25 3.27 3.43

 

 
 EXTERNAL SECTOR

    March 2017  April 2017  May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017
TOTAL EXPORTS FOB (millions of US dollars) 3,277 2,605  3,400 2,788  3,067  3,073 
Annual variation (%) 40.80  6.48  23.99  1.21  37.69  1.54 
             
TOTAL IMPORTS FOB (millions of US dollars) 3,936 3,846 3,571 3,610  3,585  4,001 
Annual variation (%) 15.15  8.7  4.20  2.38  12.20  -0.42 
             
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE (COP per US dollar) Average 2,943 2,874 2,924 2,958 3,037 2,973
End of the period 2,880 2,948 2,920 3,038 2,995 2,937
             
REAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX (RER) Non-Traditional RER index (CPI) 124.42 122.00 124.42 125.56 130.18 128.57
Non-Traditional RER index (PPI) 122.28 120.62 122.65 124.09 127.6

125.6

             
NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (NIR) Millions of US dollars 46,932 46,936 47,153 47,234 47,531 47,569

 

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS 5/    March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017
NIR/M3 30.33 30.69 30.88 31.71  31.23 30.83
  2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017  Q2 2017
NIR/GDP 16.04 16.51   16.90 17.27  15.89 15.66 
NIR/(Current account deficit + current year debt amortization) 6/ 1.10 1.36   1.17 1.24  1.28 1.14 

 

       Millions of US dollars
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
NET DIRECT INVESTMENT 4/ Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia  11,732 13,687   4,703 3,715 2,515 2,625
Colombian Investment Abroad 4,218 4,516   969 897 716 1,275

Source: Banco de la República.


NOTES:
1/ This is Banco de la República’s benchmark intervention rate according to the decision reached by the Board of Directors in said month, enforceable since the first working day after that session.
2/ Calculated as the weighted average value per amount for consumption, credit, preferential, ordinary, and treasury rates. Due to the high rotation of treasury credit, its weight was determined as the fifth part of its weekly disbursement.
3/ This corresponds to non-VIS weighted housing rates in UVR and pesos.
4/ According to the information from the balance of payments.
5/ The indicators at the closing of each quarter are calculated based on the data from the last four quarters.
6/ This includes long-term amortizations and the balance of the short-term debt from a year before.