Inflation has decreased since April, and it is projected to continue to reduce significantly throughout 2024 as it converges toward 3%.
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- Noticias |
Inflation would peak in March and start to gradually decline as of the second quarter of 2023, bringing inflation back to the 3% target over the next two years.
- Publicación |Abstract
We revisit an old question but with a new identification strategy, namely the difference in exchange rate effects between announced (“vocal”) and secret (“dirty”) foreign exchange intervention. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we exploit a rule-based intervention mechanism…
- Publicación |Abstract An event study is used to assess whether there are significant impacts on the Colombian abnormal returns of the stock market from the takeover bids (OPAs) made on the companies Nutresa and Sura. Defining the event as January 17, 2022, which is related to the award of the first OPAs and…
- Publicación |AbstractThe consequences of the most generalized lockdowns in the recent history promptly brought the deepest falls in consumption, production and employment, and the consequent increase in poverty. So far, almost all literature has focused on the effects of the lockdowns in the private sector…
- Noticias |Introduction
The macroeconomic scenario in Colombia changed substantially between 2020 and 2021. While some of the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic are behind us, problems and imbalances persist and currently pose difficult challenges for economic policy. The pace of recovery in economic…
- Publicación |AbstractDuring 1997-2003, after the strengthening of decentralization, a set of subnational fiscal rules were implemented and in the years 2011 and 2021 national fiscal rules were established in Colombia. This document evaluates compliance with these rules at the different levels of government in…
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- Publicación |Abstract Do oral FX interventions (i.e. announcements made by central bank officials and economic authorities) influence the exchange rate behavior in emerging economies? Following an event study approach, we evaluate whether this type of interventions in the Colombian FX market have an…
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At the end of 2021, the labor market showed signs of a sluggish recovery, at a notably slower pace than economic activity. With seasonally adjusted figures from the household survey, job creation in the national aggregate saw a pause in October and November, due largely to a downturn in…
- Noticias |
At the end of 2021, the labor market showed signs of a sluggish recovery, at a notably slower pace than economic activity. With seasonally adjusted figures from the household survey, job creation in the national aggregate saw a pause in October and November, due largely to a downturn in…
- Publicación |Abstract
We combine two modifications to the standard (current and total income) collateral constraint that has been commonly used in models that analyze financial crisis interventions. Specifically, we consider an alternative constraint stated in terms of future and disposable income. We find…
- Publicación |Abstract Although a sizable number of studies have been exploring the migration development nexus in international settings, there is still a reduced number on internal contexts in recent years. This research aims to estimate the causal effect of origin economic conditions on internal…
- Publicación |Abstract Given the importance of climate change and the increase of its severity under extreme weather events, we analyze the main drivers of high food prices in Colombia between 1985 and 2020 focusing on extreme weather shocks like a strong El Niño.We estimate a non-stationary extreme value…
- Publicación |Abstract This paper presents a new real exchange rate index that includes weights accounting for both direct trade links and third-market competition effects. We use trade data at 3 digit Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) level for a set of 39 countries annually updated. We…
- Publicación |Abstract We investigate the effect of domestic armed violence brought about by political instability on the geography of distance frictions in freight mobility and the resulting differential access of regions to global markets. The Colombian transportation system has been found to be impeded by…
- Publicación |AbstractIn this paper, a global production frontier is estimated using stochastic frontier models to assess the contribution of transport infrastructure to countries’ performance. We find that the role of infrastructure is underestimated under the exogeneity assumption indicating that handling…
- Publicación |AbstractThe objectives of this paper are to analyze for Colombia if there is a relationship between the public saving-investment imbalance and the external imbalance with annual data from 1970 to 2019 and, if there is one, evaluate what causes what and estimate the impact of a…
- Publicación |Abstract
The objective of this paper is to study the evolution of liquidity in the spot foreign exchange market in Colombia and its main determinants from 2006 and 2020. First, we analyze different dimensions of liquidity such as transaction costs and resilience. We achieve…
- Publicación |Abstract Modern macroeconomics focuses on the identification of the primitive exogenous forces generating business cycles. This is at odds with macroeconomic forecasts collected through surveys, which are about endogenous variables. To address this divorce, our paper uses a…
