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Author(s) / Editor(s): 
  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Fernando Arias
  • Luz Adriana Flórez

Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices

A threefold analysis of commodity prices is carried out to observe their long-run behaviour, their short-run properties and the main determinants. According to the evidence, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis does not seem to be a property of most prices. The cycles of commodity prices are asymmetric but contrary to the case of economic activity, the longer phase corresponds to slumps. Interest rates seem to maintain a negative relationship with commodity prices.

The series Borradores de Economía is published by the Economic Studies Department at the Banco de la República (Central Bank of Colombia). The works published are provisional, and their authors are fully responsible for the opinions expressed in them, as well as for possible mistakes. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.