Martinez-Rivera, Wilmer Osvaldo
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- Publicación |More data, greater confidence: the LICA rate seeks to provide a more accurate measure of the overnight cost of money in Colombia by using a larger number of actual market transactions. As a result, it offers a more representative, transparent, and less manipulation-prone benchmark, better…
- Publicación |To obtain timely and reliable forecasts of Colombia’s current account, this paper proposes a methodology that makes it possible to assess a large number of alternative models simultaneously and select those with the strongest predictive performance and greatest economic coherence. The results…
- Publicación |Through two empirical applications using economic data from the United States and Colombia, we illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology, providing not only accurate point estimates for the dating of turning points, but also enabling us to construct confidence intervals around these estimates.
- Publicación |Looking ahead, monitoring financial stability, macroeconomic (dis)equilibria, and the space for active economic policy—with inflation close to the target and sustainable public finances—are necessary conditions to successfully face future adverse shocks.
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Annual inflation is computed using the consumer price index (CPI), the twelve months included in this calculation are weighted equally. Consequently, price variations during the period analyzed may lead to an underestimation or overestimation of the signifcance of the information included in the…
- Publicación |Nowcasting inflation is not only considered an alternative measure of observed inflation, but also a predictor, which allows for constructing inflation forecasts with better performance
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We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through…
