González-Molano, Eliana Rocío
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- Publicación |Expectations about the monetary policy rate (MPR) play a key role in the transmission to deposit and credit interest rates. This process is neither immediate nor uniform across financial products.
- Publicación |Looking ahead, monitoring financial stability, macroeconomic (dis)equilibria, and the space for active economic policy—with inflation close to the target and sustainable public finances—are necessary conditions to successfully face future adverse shocks.
- Publicación |Approach
This Ensayos Sobre Política Económica (ESPE in Spanish) paper is framed within the area of macroeconomic literature that studies the expectation formation process. Under an inflation targeting scheme, expected inflation plays a central role in the analysis of monetary…
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An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as…
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Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the…
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We use a dynamic factor model proposed by Stock and Watson [1998, 1999, 2002a,b] to forecast Colombian inflation. The model includes 92 monthly series observed over the period 1999:01-2008:06. The results show that for short-run horizons, factor model forecasts significantly outperformed the…
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Artículo publicado en: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 94, num. 1, pp. 153–173, 2012.
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A small open macroeconomic model, in which an optimal interest rate rule emerges to drive the inflation behavior, is used to model inflation within an inflation targeting framework. This set up is used to estimate the relationship between commodity prices shocks and the inflation process in a…
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For central banks that have adopted an inflation targeting strategy, measuring and understanding inflation expectations are important tasks when designing monetary policy, because they influence the dynamics of price increases in a number of ways.
