Publications

Published every six months, the Regional Economic Report (RER) offers an analysis of the main aspects of the current economic situation in Colombia.

The report on Regional Economic Conditions analyzes the main regional social and economic indicators, which allow guilds, public entities, and economic researchers in general, to know the evolution of different socio-economic phenomena, in a clear and truthful …

The relationship between capital ows and domestic credit emerges from dierent channels which are usually not directly identied. In this paper, a principal-agent approach is proposed in order to disentangle the channels through which shocks on capital debt ows can aect credit-related…

In this paper we seek to assess the ability of banks to withstand the effects of an increase in credit risk as a result of changes in the macroeconomic environment. To do so we estimate a credit risk model for each loan type as a function of four macroeconomic variables commonly used in the…

This paper provides empirical evidence of the impact of fiscal decentralization on Colombia's public basic education. Based on the social and economic data available for 1,003 municipalities and 13,670 public schools, for the last decade, we confirmed that decentralization has had a positive and…

Conference on China, Hong Kong Monetary Research Institute, January 10 and 11 2013.

We assess the effects of the Colombian Unemployment Subsidy (US) program on future labor participation, unemployment, formality, school attendance and earnings of its beneficiaries, on household earnings and school attendance of the household members, and on weight and height of their children…

In the context of financial crises influenced by the development and burst of housing price bubbles, the detection of exuberant behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of vital importance. This paper applies the new method developed by…

We use a unique data set at the individual level to estimate an empirical model explaining the probability of young individuals to become criminals as a function of the presence of adult criminals in their neighborhoods, an a complete set of control variables, including census sector fixed…

This paper investigates whether transforming the Consumer Price Index with a class of power transformations lead to an improvement of inflation forecasting accuracy. We use one of the prototypical models to forecast short run inflation which is known as the univariate time series ARIMA . This…

Banco de la República’s FX intervention policy is described, with a focus on its objectives and main features. Then, based on a survey of the effectiveness of sterilized intervention in Colombia, it is argued that this tool is not useful to cope with the challenges posed by medium term external…

Presentation at the macroeconomic and sector seminar ANIF and Fedesarrollo

The paper examines the bidders behaviour in the Colombian government bond auctions during 2007 for the period in which there is no uncertainty in the supply. Three main findings are presented. First, in contrast with other treasury auctions (Castellanos [2]), the market clearing price in the…

This document explores the predictive power of the yield curves in Latin America (Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile) taking into account the factors set by the specifications of Nelson & Siegel and Svensson. Several forecasting methodologies are contrasted: an autoregressive model, a vector…

Palabras de José Darío Uribe, Gerente General del Banco de la República en el JP Morgan Investor Seminar durante las Reuniones Anuales del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo en la ciudad de Panama