Statistical Annex - Governor´s Report March 2019

 


This is the Statistical Annex of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy, and their implications for monetary policy decision-making.

  
 

 


 

 
 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
 
    Annual growth rate (%) (Seasonally adjusted and corrected for calendar effects)     
2017 2018
  QI-2018 QII-2018 QIII-2018 QIV-2018
GDP 1.35 2.66    2.17 2.60 2.93 2.93
Total Consumption 2.36 3.94    3.93 4.40 3.81 3.62
Gross Investment -3.17 3.51    -2.32 -1.79 8.73 9.93
Manufacturing -1.81 1.99    0.12 2.50 2.77 2.60
  % of GDP (Seasonally adjusted and corrected for calendar effects)         
Trade Balance (FOB) -1.96 -2.15    -0.45 -0.87 -0.42  -0.70
Current Account  -3.30 -3.83   -3.43 -3.82 -3.66 -4.42

Source: DANE, Banco de la República.

 

 


 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
 
MONETARY AGGREGATES     Billions of pesos Annual Variation (%)
 December
2018		  January
2019		 February
2019		   December
2018		 January
2019		 February
2019
Monetary Base 98,081 90,004 88,953   10.44 6.23 8.30
M1  116,396 107,765 108,341   7.24 8.17 7.54
M2 459,009 450,514 456,836   5.01 5.17 5.18
M3 504,404 490,944 497,635   5.60 5.13 5.42
 CREDIT ADJUSTED NET DEBT PORTFOLIO              
Legal Currency 407,113  405,100 409,854    5.83 5.83 6.26
Foreign Currency 19,619  18,287 18,003   0.59 0.42 -0.43
Total 426,732 423,388 427,857   5.58 5.58 5.96

  

INTEREST RATES     Percentage
September
2018		 October
2018		 November
2018		 December
2018		 January
2019		 February
2019
Intervention Rate 1/ 4.25 4.25 4,25 4,25 4,25 4,25
IBR to one day 2/ 4.25 4.26 4,25 4,24 4,25 4,25
Interbank Rate (TIB) 4.25 4.26 4,25 4,25 4,25 4,26
DEPOSIT RATES            
DTF  4.53 4.43 4.42 4.54 4.56 4.57
Fixed-term Deposit Certificate to 90 days 4.53 4.44 4.42 4.54 4.56 4.58
ACTIVE RATES            
Banco de la República’s Active Rate 3/
12.25 11.98 11.96 11.13 12.69 11.93
Total placements 12.21 11.92 11.92 11.09 12.65 11.89
Consumption Credit 17.70 17.50 17.28 17.21 18.43 17.82
Ordinary Credit 10.70 10.55 10.56 10.24 10.82

10.29
Preferential Credit 7.68 7.31 7.60 7.63 7.79 7.66
Treasury Credit 9.43 8.05 9.08 7.79 8.36 8.15
Micro-credit (without Leasing) 36.45 36.31 36.64 37.00 36.81 36.94
Construction 4/ 9.25 9.24 9.02 9.56 9.39 9.41
Housing Acquisition 4/ 10.48 10.45 10.45 10.38 10.39 10.43

 

CPI INFLATION     Percentage
September
2018		 October
2018		 November
2018		 December
2018		 January
2019		 February
2019
Total 3.23 3.33 3.27 3.18 3.15 3.01
Food (BR) 8/ 2.05 2.25 2.22 2.43

2.56

 2.84
Regulated
 6.03 6.41 6.53 6.37 6.08 5.72
Tradables (excluding food and regulated items) 1.57 1.52 1.29 1.09 0.99 0.80
Non-tradables (excluding food and regulated items) 4.13 4.13 4.05 3.79 3.87 3.38

             
CORE INFLATION INDICATORS CPI excluding foodstuffs (BR) 8/ 3.71 3.78 3.70 3.48 3.46 3.14
CPI excluding foodstuffs and regulated items 3.04 3.02 2.88 2.64 2.70 2.39
CPI excluding perishable foodstuffs, fuel and public services 2.81 2.89 2.90 2.76 2.69 2.57
CPI - Core 20 3.56 3.58 3.57 3.23 3.09 3.13

             

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

 MONTHLY SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS TO ANALYSTS              
To December 2018 3.23 3.28 3.29 3.20 n.a. n.a.
To December 2019 3.30 3.34 3.67 3.50 3.50 3.41
To December 2020 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.26 3.27 3.23
FORWARD BREAK-EVEN INFLATION (FBEI)            
For 2018 3.60 3.51 3.40 3.20 n.a. n.a.
For 2019 3.40 3.43 3.82 3.64 3.59 3.80
For 2020 3.49 3.50 3.84 3.59 3.61 3.37

 

 
 
 EXTERNAL SECTOR
TOTAL EXPORTS (BIENES)
  Septiembre
2018		 Octubre
2018		 Noviembre
2018		 Diciembre
2018		 Enero
2019		 Febrero
2019
FOB Value (millions of dollars)  3,513 3,769 3,344 3,401  3,064 n.a.
Annual Variation (%) 4.20 15.26 7.76 -14.57 -7.84 n.a.

             
TOTAL IMPORTS (BIENES)
 FOB Value (millions of dollars) 3,869 4,944 4,269 3,988  n.a. n.a.
Annual Variation (%) 8.75 31.55 12.25 15.13  n.a. n.a.

             
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE (Pesos per US dollar) Average 3,038 3,080 3,198 3,212 3,162 3,115
End of:  2,972 3,202 3,240 3,250 3,163 3,072

             
REAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX Non-Traditional RER index (CPI) 122.9 126.1 130.7 129.9  128.4 126.2
Non-Traditional RER index (PPI) 124.2 126.1 129.7 129.2 130.4 127.8

             
NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (NIR) Milllions off US dollars

47,512

 47,496 47,754 48,393 49,209 50,498

 

     September
2018		 October
2018		 November
2018		 December
2018		 January
2019		 February
2019
NIR/M3 29.58 31.64
31.49 31.18 31.71 31.17

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS 5/

   2017 2018   QI-2018 QII-2018 QIII-2018 QIV-2018
NIR/GDP 15.3 14.7   14.98 14.60 14.37 14.66
NIR/(Current account deficit + current year debt amortization) 6/ 1.2 1.2   1.20 1.18 1.16 1.19

 

NET DIRECT INVESTMENT 7/     Millions of dollars
2017 2018
   QI-2018 QII-2018 QIII-2018 QIV-2018
Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia 13,836 11,010   1,921 3,744 2,688 2,656
Colombian Investment Abroad 3,690 5,122   1,071 1,499 329 2,223

Source: Banco de la República.

NOTES:
1/ This is Banco de la República’s benchmark intervention rate according to the decision reached by the Board of Directors in said month, enforceable since the first working day after that session.
2/ Effective rate. Updated with last labour day of the month data.
3/ Calculated as the weighted average value per amount for consumption, credit, preferential, ordinary, and treasury rates. Due to the high rotation of treasury credit, its weight was determined as the fifth part of its weekly disbursement.
4/ This corresponds to non-VIS weighted housing rates in UVR and pesos.
5/ The indicators at the closing of each quarter are calculated based on the data from the last four quarters.
6/This includes long-term amortizations and the balance of the short-term debt from a year before.
7/ According to the information from the balance of payments.
8/ (BR) Calculations by Banco de la República (Central Bank of Colombia).