Working Papers on Economics
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- Publicación |When we observe an increase in labor formality associated with a higher level of economic development, is it because more people gain access to the formal sector, or because those already working remain longer in formal jobs? This study shows that labor formality rises with the level of development…
- Publicación |The combination of economic theory and neural networks makes it possible to capture complex relationships and enhance the understanding of real exchange rate misalignment in Colombia.
- Publicación |To obtain timely and reliable forecasts of Colombia’s current account, this paper proposes a methodology that makes it possible to assess a large number of alternative models simultaneously and select those with the strongest predictive performance and greatest economic coherence. The results…
- Publicación |The Housing Market Conditions Indicator (HMCI) provides a comprehensive and timely measure for monitoring developments in Colombia’s housing market and for complementing the analysis of the country’s economic cycle.
- Publicación |Approach
Motivated by the slow convergence of the classical nonparametric kernel density estimator commonly used in the literature to estimate density functions, this paper investigates more efficient estimators of the density function and its derivative for the marginal density…
- Publicación |Cross-subsidization is not merely a redistributive strategy, but a central mechanism that favors demand and generates substantial gains for both consumers and retailers, and regulations that restrict this mechanism may have unintended effects on welfare.
- Publicación |The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity across institutions of different sizes: smaller institutions significantly restricted their supply of loans with maturities longer than 108 months, reducing both loan amounts and the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. In contrast, larger institutions absorbed…
- Publicación |Deteriorations in public debt and in the expected fiscal deficit generate statistically significant increases in the cyclical component of the long-term real interest rate and a steepening of the yield curve.
- Publicación |In contexts of sustained depreciation, firms face a trade-off between investing and engaging in financial hedging, suggesting the need for policies that improve the liquidity and accessibility of the derivatives market to reduce these costs and foster investment.
- Publicación |Increases in commodity prices are partially passed through to final processed food prices. A 1% increase in commodity prices raises producer prices by 0.6% and consumer prices by 0.3%.
- Publicación |Since the late 1970s, the Colombian economy has experienced nine slowdown episodes. Three coincided with classical GDP recessions. Five of the remaining six received little attention in the literature, despite showing clear signs of economic weakening.
- Publicación |Despite the growth of modern services, Colombia’s foreign trade remains concentrated in traditional services. This poses challenges for diversifying the export basket and for promoting more differentiated, higher-technology services that can be more easily integrated into global value chains.
- Publicación |Banco de la República has a highly effective instrument in the policy rate to achieve its objectives. However, uncertainty reduces that effectiveness; therefore, when uncertainty is higher, the Bank needs to act more forcefully to achieve the same objective.
- Publicación |Approach
Colombia is undergoing a demographic transformation characterized by a marked decline in fertility rates and a sustained increase in life expectancy. Within a few decades, the country has shifted from having a predominantly young population to facing a rapid ageing…
- Publicación |Through two empirical applications using economic data from the United States and Colombia, we illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology, providing not only accurate point estimates for the dating of turning points, but also enabling us to construct confidence intervals around these estimates.
- Publicación |Approach
This document presents, from both a conceptual and applied perspective, the framework of the System of National Accounts (SNA) as the reference for analyzing a country's economic structure, evolution, and performance. It sets out the integrated logic of the system, in…
- Publicación |Increases in current income generate marginal propensities to consume that are about 25% higher than those associated with income declines, while reductions in interest rates induce long‑run responses nearly 188% larger than increases. These patterns are consistent with the presence of liquidity…
- Publicación |Labor informality, through its interaction with wage rigidities, productivity differences, and household financial constraints, acts as a powerful amplifier of macroeconomic volatility in consumption and investment, despite its traditional role as an employment stabilizer in emerging economies.
- Publicación |Demographic change represents not only a challenge but also an opportunity to rethink the financing structure and target investment toward key areas such as expanding early‑childhood and upper‑secondary education coverage, enhancing equity, strengthening teacher training, improving the student…
- Publicación |Reducing the discrimination-based pay gap by 50% is associated with a potential 8% increase in Colombia's GDP in the long run. These results depend on the substitutability between men and women in the labor market and can be smaller if closing the pay gap implies a policy effort that must be…
