The series Borradores de Economía (Working Papers on Economics) contributes to the dissemination and promotion of the work by researchers from the institution. On multiple occasions, these works have been the result of collaborative work with individuals from other national or international institutions. This series is indexed at Research Papers in Economics (RePEc). The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
We investigate the impact of fiscal expansions on firm investment by exploiting firms that have multiple banking relationships. Further, we conduct a localized RDD approach and compare the lending behavior of banks that barely met and missed the criteria of being a primary dealer, as well as barely winners and losers at government auctions. Our results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in banks’ bonds-to-assets ratio decreases loans by up to 0.4%, which leads to significant declines in firm investment, profits and wages. Our findings are grounded in a quantitative model with financial and real sectors with which we undertake a welfare analysis and compute the cost of government borrowing on the overall economy.