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Based on monthly disaggregated Consumer Price Index (CPI) item series and macroeconomic series, we explore the advantages of forecast inflation from a disaggregated to an aggregated level by aggregating the forecasts. We compare the performance of this approach with the forecast…

We use Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, a deep learning technique, to forecast Colombian headline inflation one year ahead through two approaches. The first one uses only information from the target variable, while the second one incorporates additional information from…

How much of the changes in the exchange rate is passed through to inflation is a question of main interest to the monetary authority, investors, the real sector, and the government itself.

Since the introduction of exchange rate flexibility and the inflation targeting regime in 1999, Banco de la República (BR), Colombia's monetary and exchange rate authority, has intervened assiduously in the foreign exchange market, except in the last five years.

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

In this paper, we study the empirical relationship between credit funding sources and the financial vulnerability of the Colombian banking system. We propose a statistical model to measure and predict banking fragility episodes associated with credit funding sources classified into retail…

This paper contributes an estimation framework to measure both technological and linkage externalities from foreign direct investment (FDI). Empirical research dealt mainly with intra-industry spillovers from FDI with restrictive treatment of inter-industry effects until recently. However, as…

The primary objective of this paper is to examine the role of the exchange rate in determining short-and-long-run trade balance behavior for Colombia in a model which includes money and income. That is, the aim is to examine whether the trade balance ¡is affected by the exchange rate and whether…

Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market   Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market   Luis Eduardo Arango, Andrés González, and Carlos Esteban Posada *  Banco de la República  Summary  …

The study of the asymmetric behavior of macroeconomic variables over the business cycles phases has had a long tradition in economics. In this work we find evidence in favor of the hypothesis of having a STAR-type nonlinear asymmetric behavior of the economic activity, over the last two decades…

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as…

This paper investigates whether transforming the Consumer Price Index with a class of power transformations lead to an improvement of inflation forecasting accuracy. We use one of the prototypical models to forecast short run inflation which is known as the univariate time series ARIMA . This…

A nonlinear specification of demand for cash in Colombia A nonlinear specification of demand for cash in Colombia   By Luis E. Arango and Andrés González(1)

Value at Risk (VaR) is a market risk measure widely used by risk managers and market regulatory authorities. There is a variety of methodologies proposed in the literature for the estimation of VaR. However, few of them get to say something about its distribution or its confidence intervals.…

Determining the exchange rate pass-through on inflation is a necessity for central banks as well as for firms and households. This is an apparently easy and intuitive task, but it faces high complexity and uncertainty. This paper examines the nature of the pass-through and quantifies…

This paper proposes an empirical model to identify and forecast banking fragility episodes using information on the credit funding sources. We predict the probability of occurrence of such episodes 0, 3 and 6 months ahead employing a Bayesian Model Averaging of logistic regressions. The…

We test current account sustainability based on the framework developed by Hakkio and Rush [1991] and Husted [1992] using a two-regime threshold vector error correction model. This methodology allows us to characterize short-run nonlinearities in the current account. We estimate the model for…