The Global Financial Cycle (GFC), defined as the fluctuations in international capital flows, asset prices, and risk appetite, has garnered significant attention from the recent international finance literature, market practitioners, and policymakers. This study employs…
C22
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- Publicación |Forecast evaluation measures support the implementation of this method, and the results show a reduction in the error of inflation forecasts across various time horizons.
- Publicación |This study examines the determinants of sovereign risk, focusing on the impact of geopolitical risk in emerging market economies (EMEs) sovereign risk metrics. Using local projection techniques, we evaluate the effects of geopolitical risk on credit default swaps (CDS) and EMBI indices in EMEs,…
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Foreign portfolio investments can affect the Colombian exchange market mainly through the demand for hedging that investors make in the foreign exchange derivatives market, and the exchange of dollars for pesos that materializes when investing in public debt…
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This paper analyses the behavior of household consumption in Colombia during Covid-19 post pandemic. Initially, it introduces a regional comparison emphasizing in the severity of lockdown and the government fiscal responses. Then, it describes the dynamics of the main consumption…
- Publicación |Abstract
Colombia saw a drop in investment as a result of the COVID-19 shock, which resulted in a negative gap in the second quarter of 2020 of -2.8% of the GDP. In the context of the region, Peru was hardest hit, while countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Brazil suffered minor setbacks. The…
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Assessing the effects of U.S. monetary policies on portfolio flows is important for policymakers as they could pose risks to the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy. This paper analyzes the effects of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) unconventional…
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We revisit an old question but with a new identification strategy, namely the difference in exchange rate effects between announced (“vocal”) and secret (“dirty”) foreign exchange intervention. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we exploit a rule-based intervention mechanism…
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Assessing the composition of sovereign debt holders is important because investors’ behavior varies according to distinctive components, including shareholders’ preferences, regulatory constraints, and profitability mandates. To study this issue, we examine the determinants of…
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We introduce a methodology for generating alerts of potential anti-competitive practices in the Colombian wholesale electricity market.
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One of the lessons we learned from the 2008 financial crisis was the importance of monitoring the systemic risk in the stability of financial systems. In this regard, lines of research have been developed with the aim to provide reliable and timely metrics on this risk, taking as much…
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This paper proposes comprehensive measures of the Latin American business cycle that help to infer the expected deepness of recessions, and strength of expansions, as they unfold in real time. These measures are based on the largest country economies in the region by accounting for…
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Assessing the dynamics of risk premium measures and its relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals is important for both macroeconomic policymakers and market practitioners. This paper analyzes the main determinants of CDS in Latin-America at different tenures, focusing on their…
- Publicación |Abstract In this article, we study the impact of exchange rate depreciation and volatility on the sovereignyield curve during the 2008 - 2020 timeframe. We do this by estimating univariate and multivariatetime series models and a threshold vector autoregressive model.
- Publicación |Approach
This article addresses the question: Has the delay in the provision of transport infrastructure in Colombia, caused in part by historically low levels of investment, been a significant obstacle to its economic growth and regional and international integration? The…
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The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
- Publicación |
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
- Publicación |
The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
- Publicación |
Las opiniones contenidas en este documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.
- Publicación |Abstract
Although transactions of foreign exchange market intermediaries with the real sector in the peso-dollar market are low in comparison to the ones with offshore agents, it is important to understand the behavior of the real sector and its impact on the exchange market. This paper assesses…
