Publications
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- Publicación |The Macroeconomic Models Department at Banco de la República has been working on medium- and long-term forecasts for inflation and economic growth during the last six years. In doing so, its main forecasting tool has been a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that is…
- Publicación |The job market is one of the channels through which macroeconomic dynamics influence the welfare of the population. Therefore, it must be considered in any analysis of the effects of monetary policy. Within this dimension, a useful measure is the labor market gap, which is…
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We study the relation between oil prices and stock market returns for a set of six countries, including important oil consumers and demanders. We study interconnectedness between oil and stock markets and characterize the dynamics of transmission and reception between them. We test for Granger…
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We use hazard models to study the determinants of housing price bubbles’ duration. We answer two related questions: i). Does prolonged domestic monetary policy easing increase the duration of housing price bubbles? And, ii). Does prolonged monetary policy easing in the US influences housing…
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CURRENT SITUATION OF THE COLOMBIAN ECONOMYThis is the Statistical Annex of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy,…
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The analysis of the impacts of coffee bonanzas and crisis on the Colombian economy, given its importance, has been one of the favorite topics of research both by Colombian and foreing economists, Cárdenas (1991); Carkovic (1992); Cuddington (1986); Ocampo (1994); Posada (1992); Urrutia and…
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Transmission mechanisms and inflation targeting: the case of Colombias desinflation
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Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market Returns and interest rate: A nonlinear relationship in the Bogotá stock market Luis Eduardo Arango, Andrés González, and Carlos Esteban Posada * Banco de la República Summary …
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TAX EXPORTING: AN ANALYSIS USING A MULTIREGIONAL CGE MODEL Tax Exporting: An Analysis Using a Multiregional CGE Model Ana María Iregui * Estudios Económicos Banco de la República
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HOW UNCERTAÍN ARE NAIRU ESTÍMATES ÍN COLOMBÍA? HOW UNCERTAÍN ARE NAIRU ESTÍMATES ÍN COLOMBÍA?
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The study of the asymmetric behavior of macroeconomic variables over the business cycles phases has had a long tradition in economics. In this work we find evidence in favor of the hypothesis of having a STAR-type nonlinear asymmetric behavior of the economic activity, over the last two decades…
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I build a general equilibrium, financial accelerator model that incorporates an explicit technology for the intermediary sector. A credit multiplier emerges because of a borrowing constraint that is a function of asset prices, internal funds and lending rates. With this financial friction I show…
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The construction of coincident indexes for the economic activity of a country is a common practice since the fifties. The methodologies vary from heuristic methods to probabilistic or statistical ones. In this paper, we present a new procedure for estimating a coincident index of the state of…
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A Statement of the Colombian Constitutional Court has mandated wage indexation on the basis of past inflation. A simple model with a wage price system, a real block, and an inflation targeting interest rule is calibrated to resemble price setting in the Colombian economy and to analyze the…
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There is large body of empirical literature devoted to study the relationship between inflation and long-run growth. Recently, levine and Renelt (1992) encouraged by new developments in growth theory investigated, within a unified framework, the effet of a number of variables on per capita…
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SeveralObservers of Latin America have underscored the notion that an emerging "consensus" regarding the role of the State in the economy surfaced during the 1980's (v.g World Bank, 1993; Williamson, 1993). Starting from an emphasis on issues regarding stabilization, there are three main and…
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the links between central bank independence and foreing exchange policies, in the light of the recent experience of the major Latin American countries. To that end, the paper starts with a brief review of the literature on the subject. The second section…
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A basic theoretical of a small open economy within the framework of intertemporal maximization is used to analyze the effects of nominal export shocks. The model helps in explaining the close relationship that is found between export shocks and short run fluctuations of domestic savings in the…
