Domestic trade continued to show dynamic performance, surpassing the national average. Household consumption was driven by sales of food and beverages, information technology equipment, and vehicles. Likewise, demand for cultural and entertainment items, consumer imports, and new housing sales…
Inflación
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- Publicación |When weather shocks are persistent --As in the extreme scenario-- they generate more lasting inflationary pressures that justify more restrictive monetary policy responses, albeit with higher costs in terms of economic activity.
- Publicación |The results highlight the usefulness of combining machine learning techniques with alternative sources of information to generate timely forecasts that are comparable to those of the market.
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Retail sales slowed down due to a slower growth rate in the sale of vehicles and motorcycles, consistent with a fall in consumer credit. However, sales of food and beverages, as well as computer and communications equipment, led the positive retail performance.
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Retail sales in Santander grew, with vehicles, food, computer equipment, and entertainment standing out. Promotions and discounts boosted consumption. Imports of consumer goods, mainly durable goods, also increased.
- Publicación |Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) implemented pilot surveys and, in 2023, conducted a nationally representative survey of the adult population. This revealed important data, such as that 95% of Colombians have heard of the Bank, but only 44.6% identify it as responsible for…
- Publicación |The necessary effort to stabilize inflation is greater when credibility is low, requiring the implementation of stricter policies than usual to achieve the same inflation targets.
- Publicación |Gran parte de la población carece de las herramientas fundamentales para tomar decisiones económicas y financieras adecuadas, lo cual es crucial para mejorar su bienestar y protegerse frente a choques económicos o inflacionarios.
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Based on monthly disaggregated Consumer Price Index (CPI) item series and macroeconomic series, we explore the advantages of forecast inflation from a disaggregated to an aggregated level by aggregating the forecasts. We compare the performance of this approach with the forecast…
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We use Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, a deep learning technique, to forecast Colombian headline inflation one year ahead through two approaches. The first one uses only information from the target variable, while the second one incorporates additional information from…
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Colombia is particularly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather fluctuations. In this context, this study explores how the adverse weather events linked to ENSO affect the inflation expectations in Colombia and how to incorporate these second-round effects into a…
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At the end of each year, Colombia follows a negotiation protocol that leads to an increase in the minimum wage either by agreement between the parties or, in the absence of such agreement, by government decision. Despite evidence of its adverse effects on the labor market (formal…
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The covid-19 pandemic distorted the pattern of household consumption. Consequently, the official fixed basket CPI could be measuring inaccurately the evolution of inflation. The exercise presented in this document, was to update the weighting structure of the basket with alternative…
- Publicación |Abstract This document offers an exercise that quantifies on the Colombia CPI the maximum possible impact in accounting terms of some price reliefs decreed by the national government. This impact would not necessarily coincide with the official CPI figures, due to the presence of multiple…
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This paper proposes an update of the CPI disaggregations that Banco de la República implements and analyzes regularly. This new classification contributes to the timely identification of different inflationary pressures, it stands in accordance with international practices, it…
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The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors
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