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A dynamic linear model for data revisions and delays is proposed. This model extends Jacobs & Van Norden's [13] in two ways. First, the "true" data series is observable up to a fixed period of time M. And second, preliminary figures might be biased estimates of the true series. Otherwise, the…

  This paper contains a nonlinear, nonstationary autoregressive model whose intercept changes deterministically over time. The intercept is a flexible function of time, and its construction bears some resemblance to neural network models. A modeling technique, modified from one for single…

Abstract Assessing the dynamics of risk premium measures and its relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals is important for both macroeconomic policymakers and market practitioners. This paper analyzes the main determinants of CDS in Latin-America at different tenures, focusing on their…

At the end of 2021, the labor market showed signs of a sluggish recovery, at a notably slower pace than economic activity. With seasonally adjusted figures from the household survey, job creation in the national aggregate saw a pause in October and November, due largely to a downturn in employment…

The money issued by a central bank is called the monetary base. Every time the central bank purchases financial assets or makes other payments, primary money creation takes place.

Monetary neutrality in the colombian Monetary neutrality in the Colombian real exchange rate

This work analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices. According to Frankel’s hypothesis (1986-2006): “low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices”. However, some empirical evidence suggests that commodity prices can predict monetary policy. In this way…

Presented during the Panel: Macroeconomic View on Colombia in London of the 6th version of Colombia InsideOut.   Hosts : Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC) and Depósito Centralizado de Valores (Deceval)

Abstract Portfolio flows are an important source of funding for both private and public agents in emerging market economies. In this paper, we study the influence of changes in domestic and US monetary policy rates on portfolio inflows in an emerging market economy and discriminate among fixed…

The role of the exchange rate and the exchange rate regime in the monetary policy decision-making process in Colombia is described. The rationale for the intervention of the Central Bank in the FX market is explained and the experience in this regard is reviewed. Special attention is given to the…

Notas de la Presentación Reuniones Anuales del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) Medellín, marzo 29 de 2009

Presented during “The Shadow of Neo-Protectionism and Coping with the Challenges of the Normalization Process” (Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee/Bank of Indonesia/UBS).

Presented at FLAR-CAF XIII Annual Conference

Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) main instrument to achieve the inflation target is the monetary policy interest rate. Decisions on the level of this interest rate consider the analysis of the current situation of the economy (prices, output, and employment, among others), its…

 If theory-consistent models can ever hope to forecast well and to be useful for policy, they have to relate to data which though rich in information is uncertain, unbalanced and sometimes forecasts from external sources about the future path of other variables. One example from many is…

Presented at 9th High Level Conference on the International Monetary System.

The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents an…

  Monetary policy should continuously assess the state of the economy, as well as its future developments and prospects over the next four to eight quarterly terms. It is during this time span that changes in interest-rate intervention rates have their effect on other interest rates and have…

Working paper for a meeting with the Governor of Banco de la República, the Finance Minister of Colombia and members of the Trade Council.

Translation available since: 2015 | Periodicity: Quarterly

Inflation would peak in March and start to gradually decline as of the second quarter of 2023, bringing inflation back to the 3% target over the next two years.

Inflation continued to decline but remains above the 3% target. Economic activity is gradually recovering, with strong momentum observed in the first quarter of the year. The current benchmark rate remains consistent with inflation’s convergence to the target over the next two years and a gradual…

During the first quarter, annual headline inflation (5.6%) increased and moved further away from the 3% target. Different economic agents expect inflation to continue increasing over the remainder of the year. Economic growth has moderated, but the level of country spending remains high and exceeds…

As per its constitutional mandate, Banco de la República must ensure that the purchasing power of the currency is maintained in coordination with the general economic policy1.

Inflation continues to fall, but it is above the 3% target, and it is projected to continue falling until it reaches it in 2025. Economic growth is low, but it would recover, and by 2025, economic activity would reach a path that can be sustained over time without causing unwanted changes in…