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This paper provides evidence on the positive role of fiscal decentralization on regional economic growth in Colombia since the promulgation of the Political Constitution of 1991. The empirical strategy involved the choice of a suitable estimator for the panel data approach, the Augmented Mean Group…

Abstract Using a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for 2019, shocks of various characteristics to the minimum wage are simulated to establish the effects on the nation's fiscal accounts. This document is a pioneer in that analysis. The evidence suggests adverse effects of increases…

The opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Banco de la República or its Board of Directors..   ABSTRACT  

Fiscal multipliers are different across countries and according with economic circumstances. The studies about the effect of a government spending shock on output have focus their attention on the behavior of consumption. However, the crowding out of investment is also an important matter of study…

AbstractIn this paper we extend the economic model used in Parra et al. (2020) to incorporate two significant groups that were not included in the original analysis: people who are retired with pension equivalent to the minimum wage and those who do not fulfill pension requirements and therefore…

In this paper we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium fiscal model for the Colombian economy. The model has three main components: the existence of non-Ricardian households, price and wage rigidities, and a fiscal authority that finances government spending partly with public debt. The…

The purpose of this study is twofold: First, it provides an empirical characterization of fiscal policy in Colombia over the last decades, by assessing the three most relevant macroeconomic factors: the behavior of fiscal policy over the business cycle; whether it has been coherent with the long-…

 

For the evaluation of macroeconomic policies Colombian authorities rely heavily, if not  exclusively, on the operational framework known as the Financial Programming Model developed by the IMF in the 1950s. Based on this static framework, the formulation of fiscal policy in the country, just…

What is the Flexible Credit Line (FCL)?The FCL is an instrument created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and designed to provide early and flexible financing to countries with very strong economic fundamentals and sound institutional economic policy frameworks. It is a temporaryi and…

According to the 2024 Opinion Panel by Cifras y Conceptos, Banco de la República continues to rank first among national institutions in terms of trust in Colombia, receiving a score of 80/100.

This paper investigates whether transforming the Consumer Price Index with a class of power transformations lead to an improvement of inflation forecasting accuracy. We use one of the prototypical models to forecast short run inflation which is known as the univariate time series ARIMA . This model…

 

This document explores the predictive power of the yield curves in Latin America (Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile) taking into account the factors set by the specifications of Nelson & Siegel and Svensson. Several forecasting methodologies are contrasted: an autoregressive model, a vector…

  The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.    

This study develops three exchange rate models as well as a simple statistical model defined as a random walk with a variable drift. The exchange rate models all use the purchasing power parity hypothesis to account for the long-term relationships between prices and the exchange rate, together with…

 

 

This paper studies foreign and domestic firms in Colombia and, in particular, whether these firms behave differently.   The study uses a dataset containing the 2003 balance sheets and income statements for some 7,001 firms.  The dataset was obtained from the Superintendencia de Sociedades.

It is known that the Colombian economy as well as the most of the Latin American economies experienced a period of relative economic stability until the end of seventies. However, since the early eighties, a common fact in these economies but Colombia, was a debt repudiation process, economic…

Banco de la República reports that it did not perform any purchase or sale of foreign currency in December 2016. In 2016, the Central Bank performed net foreign exchange sales for a total value of US$255.6 million.   In December, the Central Bank did not perform any purchases or sales of TES B…

Banco de la República reports that it did not perform any purchase or sale of foreign exchange currency in January 2017.    During the same month, the Central Bank did not perform any purchases or sales of TES B. At the end of January, the balance of the bonds in its possession was $8,985…