This Box quantifies the potential effects of a real increase in the minimum wage on a set of macroeconomic variables when the increment exceeds the sum of inflation and labor productivity growth by 17.2 percentage points (pp), as the one established for 2026. The analysis is conducted by…
Ramos-Veloza, Mario Andrés
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Banco de la República, the Central Bank of Colombia, continuously reviews and updates the tools used for macroeconomic forecasting and monetary policy analysis. These tools include macroeconomic models, which enable the collective analysis of inflation and economic growth dynamics in the medium…
- Publicación |Labor informality, through its interaction with wage rigidities, productivity differences, and household financial constraints, acts as a powerful amplifier of macroeconomic volatility in consumption and investment, despite its traditional role as an employment stabilizer in emerging economies.
- Publicación |Reducing the discrimination-based pay gap by 50% is associated with a potential 8% increase in Colombia's GDP in the long run. These results depend on the substitutability between men and women in the labor market and can be smaller if closing the pay gap implies a policy effort that must be…
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This study updates the 4GM model used by Banco de la República (the Central Bank of Colombia) for monetary policy analysis. The update explicitly incorporates labor‑market dynamics, including the evolution of the unemployment rate and wages. The aim is to capture how…
- Publicación |Greater female labor force participation would help mitigate the challenges posed by population aging, which is one of the most pressing issues facing major economies worldwide.
- Publicación |“… the costs of informality are higher: workers have limited social protection, businesses are less productive, and the state has reduced capacity to collect taxes and provide public goods. This leads to inefficient allocation of resources, which negatively impacts the country's economic growth.”
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Since the enactment of Law 100 of 1993, the health care system in Colombia has undergone significant transformations that have resulted in improvements in health indicators, expanded coverage, and financial protection for the population.
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At the end of each year, Colombia follows a negotiation protocol that leads to an increase in the minimum wage either by agreement between the parties or, in the absence of such agreement, by government decision. Despite evidence of its adverse effects on the labor market (formal…
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This paper identifies Okun´s law in Colombia between 1984 and 2016 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as there is evidence of a long-term relationship between the unemployment rate and the GDP. Results suggest that after a one percent increase in GDP, the unemployment rate is reduced…
