Through two empirical applications using economic data from the United States and Colombia, we illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology, providing not only accurate point estimates for the dating of turning points, but also enabling us to construct confidence intervals around these estimates.
Hernández-Bejarano, Manuel Darío
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The extern
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Abstract
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The price setting behavior of Colombian retailers of goods and services was studied based on a unique dataset containing 12,052,970 individual price reports covering all items in the Colombian CPI from March 1999 to May 2008. The main results are summarized as follows: 1. Colombian consumer…
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We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through…
