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Resumen: Martellini and Menzio (JPE, 2020) argue that in a search-theoretical model with constant improvements in the search technology, a balanced growth path (BGP) exists if firm-worker matches are inspection goods and the quality of matches follow a Pareto distribution. On such a BGP, declining...
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Resumen: This paper empirically examines the role of fiscal and monetary policy in the anchoring of inflation expectations using a panel of 45 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1990-2025. We investigate whether changes in sovereign debt and the stance of monetary policy influence the...
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Resumen: We develop a novel firm-level credit condition sentiment index using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and earnings calls. We first document that our credit condition sentiment index is a sensible measure by demonstrating it is positively correlated with the commonly used firm...
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Resumen: We develop a New Keynesian model with financial frictions to study how corporate capital structure shapes static and dynamic monetary policy tradeoffs through the supply side. Ex post, when corporate leverage is high, monetary tightening contracts both demand and supply. As a result, the...
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Resumen: We measure the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary easing and tightening, during booms and recessions, using a novel nonlinear Proxy-SVAR approach. We find evidence of significant nonlinearities for the U.S. economy (1973:M1 - 2019:M6): stimulating economic activity...
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Resumen: The main goal of this work is to propose a general methodology to create a coincident index for the economy of a given country or region based on linear combinations of dynamic common factors, and to validate it on simulated scenarios and on a case study for Colombia.
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Resumen: In this paper, we develop a scalable micro-macro modeling framework that integrates linear multivariate time series models with nonlinear panel models to investigate to what extent oil supply shocks affect household inflation expectations in the Euro area in a heterogeneous and nonlinear...
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Resumen: Local projections (LPs) are widely used in empirical macroeconomics to estimate impulse responses to policy interventions. Yet, in many ways, they are black boxes. It is often unclear what mechanism or historical episodes drive a particular estimate.
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Resumen: We study the optimal design of disinflation after the creation of a newly independent central bank with limited credibility.
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Resumen: La eficacia y la eficiencia de la política monetaria se evalúan para la economía colombiana en el período 2003‑2024 a partir del análisis estadístico y la inferencia en un modelo econométrico de rezagos distribuidos.
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Resumen: La reconfiguración de las cadenas globales de valor ha impulsado estrategias de relocalización buscando una mayor resiliencia a cambios en el entorno internacional pese a sus inherentes desafíos en términos de costos y competitividad. Este estudio evalúa los potenciales beneficios...
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Resumen: Central banks monitor macroeconomic risk through two traditions: scenario analysis, regularly used since the mid-1990s, and distributional forecasting, practiced since the late 1960s.
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Resumen: Desentrañamos empíricamente los efectos de corto y mediano plazo de los movimientos del tipo de cambio sobre la inversión de las empresas no financieras en Colombia entre 2005 y 2019. Encontramos que una depreciación estructural del peso afecta negativamente la inversión a través de un...
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