Servicios

Seminario de Macroeconomía – (Endogenous) Growth Slowdowns

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – A Nonparametric Approach to Augmenting a Bayesian VAR with Nonlinear Factors

Resumen: This paper proposes a Vector Autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically lessens the risk of mis-specification. Second, the...

Seminario de Macroeconomía – America First? The Macroeconomic Implications of Punitive Tariffs

Resumen: Since 2018, tariffs have resurged as a tool for protecting domestic economies, particularly in the US. This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare impacts of various tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network. The...

Seminario de Macroeconomía – An empirical study of the diffusion of shocks in production networks

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Bank Specialization In Lending To New Firms

Seminario de Macroeconomía – Choques de precios relativos e inflación

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Credit Airlines: Financing, Modes of Export, and Comparative Advantage

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Declinining Search Frictions, Unemployment, and Growth Revisited

Resumen: Martellini and Menzio (JPE, 2020) argue that in a search-theoretical model with constant improvements in the search technology, a balanced growth path (BGP) exists if firm-worker matches are inspection goods and the quality of matches follow a Pareto distribution. On such a BGP, declining...

Seminario de Macroeconomía – Financial development, informality, and misallocation

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Forecasting recessions: The importance of the financial cycle

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Heterogeneous Strategies and Financial (Under)Development: Unintended Consequences of FX Policy and Regulation on Firms Hedging

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Higher Education Funding, Welfare and Inequality in Equilibrium

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – In their own words: Measuring credit conditions using earnings calls

Resumen: We develop a novel firm-level credit condition sentiment index using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and earnings calls. We first document that our credit condition sentiment index is a sensible measure by demonstrating it is positively correlated with the commonly used firm-...

Seminario de Macroeconomía – Inflation Levels and (In)Attention

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Is the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Alive in Emerging Markets?

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Manufacturing Sentiment: Forecasting Industrial Production with Text Analysis

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Minimum wages and firm outcomes

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Monetary Policy with Persistent Supply Shocks

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Nonlinear Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Resumen: We measure the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary easing and tightening, during booms and recessions, using a novel nonlinear Proxy-SVAR approach. We find evidence of significant nonlinearities for the U.S. economy (1973:M1 - 2019:M6): stimulating economic activity...

Seminario de Macroeconomía – Oil, Inflation Expectations, and Household Characteristics: A Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agent VAR Approach

Resumen: In this paper, we develop a scalable micro-macro modeling framework that integrates linear multivariate time series models with nonlinear panel models to investigate to what extent oil supply shocks affect household inflation expectations in the Euro area in a heterogeneous and nonlinear...

Seminario de Macroeconomía – Peace and Academic Migration: Evidence from Higher Education in Colombia

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Política monetaria, inflación y crecimiento en la economía colombiana

Resumen: La eficacia y la eficiencia de la política monetaria se evalúan para la economía colombiana en el período 2003‑2024 a partir del análisis estadístico y la inferencia en un modelo econométrico de rezagos distribuidos.

Seminario de Macroeconomía – Pronóstico de inflación de corto plazo en Argentina con modelos Random Forest

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Seminario de Macroeconomía – Relocalización del comercio de Estados Unidos: Oportunidades y desafíos para Colombia

Resumen: La reconfiguración de las cadenas globales de valor ha impulsado estrategias de relocalización buscando una mayor resiliencia a cambios en el entorno internacional pese a sus inherentes desafíos en términos de costos y competitividad. Este estudio evalúa los potenciales beneficios...

Seminario de Macroeconomía – Short vs Medium-Run: Exchange Rate Movements, Investment and the Currency Composition of Balance Sheets

Resumen: Desentrañamos empíricamente los efectos de corto y mediano plazo de los movimientos del tipo de cambio sobre la inversión de las empresas no financieras en Colombia entre 2005 y 2019. Encontramos que una depreciación estructural del peso afecta negativamente la inversión a través de un...